Match report →
Feyenoord – FC Utrecht5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Feyenoord
2.08
Total xG
3.53
FC Utrecht
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Feyenoord | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.35 | +1.35 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.94 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.44 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.44 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Yoann Cathline on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.6 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Feyenoord has been highly offensive in recent matches, averaging 7.6 shots on target
- Squad impact: Feyenoord only has 26% of their usual goal-scoring threat available due to squad changes
- Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 51% and 2.08 expected home goals
Risks
- FC Utrecht concede an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- High vulnerability on both sides with a calculated BTTS probability of 68%
All probabilities
Result
Feyenoord51%
Draw23%
FC Utrecht25%
Double chance
Feyenoord or draw75%
FC Utrecht or draw49%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: 11 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
- Anis Hadj Moussa: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Utrecht: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 18)
- FC Utrecht: 78% of all goals in the second half (14 of 18, last 11 games)
- FC Utrecht: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Feyenoord: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Feyenoord 4-3-3 · FC Utrecht 5-4-1
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
FC Utrecht
- 1 V. Barkas
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 2 S. Horemans
- 3 M. Didden
- 5 N. Panayiotou
- 92 A. Zagre
- 11 Ángel Galiot
- 20 D. de Wit
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 15 A. Blake
- 9 A. Stepanov
Substitutes
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 17 R. Nelson
- 39 L. Bossin
- 27 G. Diarra
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 36 J. Zinhagel
- 32 T. Wessels
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
- 80 M. Sivertsen Broholm
- 18 J. Medić
- 22 S. Padt
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 10 Y. Cathline
- 17 S. van Duijn
- 53 F. Pohl
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 21 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 8 J. van Overeem
- 47 E. Chigozie Owen
- 39 N. Amrabat
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →