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Eredivisie

Feyenoord - FC Utrecht

09/20/2026, 10:15 AM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Feyenoord
2.1
Total xG
3.5
FC Utrecht
1.4
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FEYFU

Feyenoord

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.44
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.44
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.21
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.11
Strong home record (2.6 vs 2.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

FC Utrecht

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.94
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.10
Yoann Cathline on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.35
+1.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: 11 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)

  • 2
    Anis Hadj Moussa: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    FC Utrecht: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 18)

  • 4
    FC Utrecht: 78% of all goals in the second half (14 of 18, last 11 games)

  • 5
    FC Utrecht: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Feyenoord: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

23%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Feyenoord has been highly offensive in recent matches, averaging 7.6 shots on target
  • Squad impact: Feyenoord only has 26% of their usual goal-scoring threat available due to squad changes
  • Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 51% and 2.08 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • FC Utrecht concede an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • High vulnerability on both sides with a calculated BTTS probability of 68%
Overview

Feyenoord host FC Utrecht at Stadion Feijenoord

Eredivisie match on September 20, 2026, 12:15 PM

Feyenoord sit in 3rd place with 14 points

FC Utrecht occupy 14th place with 5 points

The home team enters as clear favorites

Form

Feyenoord show stable form with WDWLW

Recently they secured a clear 7-0 win against PEC Zwolle

The visitors Utrecht exhibit a form of LDLDW

Utrecht won their latest match against Excelsior by 2-1

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Feyenoord scored an average of 2.06 goals per game this season

In home games their scoring average is 2.05 goals

FC Utrecht score an average of 1.64 goals per match

Away from home Utrecht concede an average of 2.0 goals

Feyenoord kept 10 clean sheets so far this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in total

Feyenoord celebrated 3 wins while FC Utrecht recorded 1 win

The last direct encounter ended 1-0 in favor of the away team Feyenoord

In these matchups, Feyenoord scored 7 goals and Utrecht scored 4 goals

Key Players

Gjivai Zechiƫl scored 5 goals and provided 3 assists this season

Anis Hadj Moussa recorded 3 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.81

Luciano Valente contributed 3 goals and 1 assist so far

Artem Stepanov scored 5 goals this season with a rating of 7.12

Adrian Blake recorded 2 goals this season

Davy van den Berg stood out with 2 assists this term

Not nominated: Yoann Cathline (0 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Tjark Ernst is in goal for Feyenoord with an average rating of 6.77

Feyenoord have achieved 10 clean sheets this season

On the opposing side Vasilios Barkas plays for FC Utrecht with a rating of 6.46

Utrecht kept 9 clean sheets in this campaign so far

Influences

Stadion Feijenoord features a natural grass pitch

The historical goal rate at the stadium stands at an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played in this stadium so far

The historical Over 2.5 rate at Stadion Feijenoord is 60%

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