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Eredivisie

Willem II - Fortuna Sittard

09/19/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Willem II
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Fortuna Sittard
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
WIFS

Willem II

Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap)
-0.14
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Fortuna Sittard

Attack weakness (0.31x league average)
-1.52
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.84
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap)
+0.07
Lequincio Zeefuik on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.39
+1.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Willem II: scored only after the break in 4 of 6 games

  • 2
    Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    Fortuna Sittard: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Willem II: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)

  • 5
    Fortuna Sittard: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

27%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Fortuna Sittard (8th place, 10 points) enter the match in better form than second-to-last Willem II (17th place, 2 points) who are still winless
  • The hosts' severe defensive weakness, conceding an average of 3.17 goals per game this season, offers the visitors plenty of opportunities
  • Fortuna Sittard recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match with a counter-oriented possession of 35%
Risk Factors
  • Fortuna Sittard concede a high average of 2.27 goals per away game
  • Willem II recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match
  • The hosts have to cope without 6 injured players, including J. Hoogma and K. Boogaard
Overview

Willem II host Fortuna Sittard at the Koning Willem II Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 19, 2026, 8:00 PM

Willem II are in 17th place with 2 points

Fortuna Sittard occupy 8th place with 10 points

The hosts are searching for their first win of the season

Form

Willem II are in poor form: LDLDL

In 6 games they recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses

Fortuna Sittard are more stable: WLWWL

The visitors recorded 3 wins and 2 losses recently

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Willem II score an average of 1.00 goal and concede 3.17 goals

In 6 matches, the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet

Fortuna Sittard average 1.44 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded

Away from home, the visitors concede an average of 2.27 goals

Willem II's home games have averaged 4.00 goals this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 direct encounters in recent seasons

Willem II are winless with 1 draw and 1 defeat

The goal difference stands at 0:1 against the hosts

The last meeting ended 1-0 in favor of Fortuna Sittard on April 27, 2025

Key Players

Devin Haen leads his team with 3 goals this season

Uriël van Aalst has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists

Nathan Tjoe-A-On has already provided 2 assists this season

Mohamed Ihattaren shines with 3 goals and 2 assists

Edouard Michut has scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists so far

Anthony Descotte currently has 2 goals from 6 appearances

Goalkeepers

Maxime Delanghe has played 3 games and is waiting for his first clean sheet

Mattijs Branderhorst has made 6 appearances with a rating of 7.04

The visiting keeper has already kept 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Matches at the Koning Willem II Stadion have averaged 4.00 goals per game

On the grass pitch, all 3 of the hosts' home games ended with over 2.5 goals

Willem II concede an average of 3.00 goals per home match

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