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Willem II – Fortuna Sittard0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Willem II
1.43
Total xG
3.00
Fortuna Sittard
1.57
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Willem II | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.31x league average) | −1.52 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.84 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Lequincio Zeefuik on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Fortuna Sittard (8th place, 10 points) enter the match in better form than second-to-last Willem II (17th place, 2 points) who are still winless
- The hosts' severe defensive weakness, conceding an average of 3.17 goals per game this season, offers the visitors plenty of opportunities
- Fortuna Sittard recently averaged 4.6 shots on target per match with a counter-oriented possession of 35%
Risks
- Fortuna Sittard concede a high average of 2.27 goals per away game
- Willem II recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match
- The hosts have to cope without 6 injured players, including J. Hoogma and K. Boogaard
All probabilities
Result
Willem II33%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard40%
Double chance
Willem II or draw60%
Fortuna Sittard or draw67%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Willem II: scored only after the break in 4 of 6 games
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Fortuna Sittard: 9 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Willem II: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)
- Fortuna Sittard: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Willem II 4-2-3-1 · Fortuna Sittard 4-3-3
Willem II
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 23 M. Dekker
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 6 C. Twigt
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 7 J. Slory
- 9 D. Haen
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 3 R. Guth
- 28 J. Hubner
- 8 J. Dahlhaus
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 20 E. Michut
- 22 S. ’t Zand
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 9 A. Descotte
- 10 O. ter Haar Romeny
Substitutes
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 32 V. van Crooij
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 14 J. Mathijsen
- 21 W. van der Steen
- 22 P. van Loon
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 10 J. Schuurman
- 18 A. Zarrouk
- 25 L. Zeefuik
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 7 K. Peterson
- 38 Moussa Gbemou
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 15 N. de Groot
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 39 G.Büyükhan
- 35 K. Burgsteden
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