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Eredivisie

FC Twente - PSV

09/20/2026, 12:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Twente
1.9
Total xG
3.7
PSV
1.8
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

3:1

5%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
FTPSV

FC Twente

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.43
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.19
Attack strength (1.96x league average)
+0.18
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Marko Pjaca on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Strong home record (2.9 vs 2 goals/match)

PSV

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+1.43
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-0.78
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.9 season average)
+0.28
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.35
+1.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    PSV: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)

  • 2
    PSV: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)

  • 4
    PSV with Ricardo Pepi starting: 3.1 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (18/7 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

24%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

50%

Under 3.5

50%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

72%

No

28%

Key Factors
  • PSV squad crisis: Only 21% of season's goal scoring threat is available for this match
  • Offensive dominance: FC Twente recently averaged 9.0 shots on target with 61% possession
  • Rising trend: FC Twente is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than its season average (2.0)
Risk Factors
  • Historical dominance: PSV clearly dominated the last 4 direct meetings with a 16-3 goal ratio
  • Away defensive risk: PSV concedes an average of 1.36 goals in away matches
  • Limited data on duel statistics for the last 5 matches
Overview

FC Twente (5th place, 13 points) host league leaders PSV (1st place, 16 points) at De Grolsch Veste

Eredivisie match on September 20, 2026, 2:30 PM

A top-tier clash in the battle for the top spot

Form

FC Twente is in strong form with the sequence WWDWW

The hosts recently secured 4 wins and 1 draw

PSV arrives undefeated with the form WWWDW

The visitors also recorded 4 wins and 1 draw recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Twente scores an average of 1.74 goals per game this season and concedes 1.18 goals

At home, the hosts' defense remains solid, conceding only 0.94 goals on average

PSV shines offensively with an average of 2.97 goals per game over the season

In away games, PSV increases its output to an average of 3.07 goals

The model calculates a very high probability for over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

PSV dominates the head-to-head matches with 4 wins in 4 games

The last direct meeting ended in a 5-1 win for PSV on May 17, 2026

The goal difference in these matches stands at 16-3 in favor of the visitors

Key Players

Wout Weghorst scored 3 season goals and hit the net four times in the last 5 games

Younes Taha has 1 goal and 2 assists with an average season rating of 7.43

Daouda Weidmann impresses in midfield with a strong season rating of 7.6

Sergiño Dest recorded 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.82

Ivan Perišić contributed 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.66

Ricardo Pepi remains a constant threat in attack with 3 goals this season

Not nominated: Marko Pjaca

Goalkeepers

Lars Unnerstall appeared in 5 matches and has already kept 8 clean sheets this season

Matej Kovar played 6 games and recorded 7 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage for FC Twente at De Grolsch Veste on grass

FC Twente scores an average of 1.71 goals at home and concedes only 0.94 goals

Historical matches at this venue average 2.8 goals per game

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