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FC Twente – PSV3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Twente
1.85
Total xG
3.68
PSV
1.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Twente | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +1.43 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.35 | +1.35 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.78 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.43 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.9 season average) | +0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Attack strength (1.96x league average) | +0.18 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Marko Pjaca on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.9 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- PSV squad crisis: Only 21% of season's goal scoring threat is available for this match
- Offensive dominance: FC Twente recently averaged 9.0 shots on target with 61% possession
- Rising trend: FC Twente is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than its season average (2.0)
Risks
- Historical dominance: PSV clearly dominated the last 4 direct meetings with a 16-3 goal ratio
- Away defensive risk: PSV concedes an average of 1.36 goals in away matches
- Limited data on duel statistics for the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
FC Twente39%
Draw24%
PSV38%
Double chance
FC Twente or draw62%
PSV or draw61%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
1:3
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- PSV: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- PSV: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- PSV with Ricardo Pepi starting: 3.1 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (18/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
FC Twente 4-2-3-1 · PSV 4-2-3-1
FC Twente
- 1 L. Unnerstall
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 38 M. Bruns
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 17 F. Thorvaldsen
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 24 K. Sano
- 10 P. Wanner
- 5 I. Perišić
- 20 G. Til
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 9 R. Pepi
Substitutes
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 16 J. Drommel
- 11 D. Rots
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 37 N. Ünüvar
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 2 M. Rosiak
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 27 D. Man
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 18 F. Kostić
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 35 A. Santos
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
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