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Eredivisie

AZ - Telstar

09/20/2026, 12:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
AZ
2.1
Total xG
3.5
Telstar
1.4
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
AZTEL

AZ

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.66
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.31
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Kees Smit on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match)

Telstar

Attack weakness (0.45x league average)
-1.75
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+1.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.15
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)
+1.35
+1.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AZ: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

23%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • AZ averaged 6.8 shots on target with 60.2% ball possession in recent matches
  • Telstar averaged only 2.2 shots on target with 40.6% ball possession in recent matches
  • The predictive model calculates a 54% probability for a home win with 2.15 expected goals for AZ
Risk Factors
  • Telstar recently averaged only 2.2 shots on target per game
  • Telstar concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

AZ in position 2 with 16 points host Telstar in position 12 with 5 points at the AFAS Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 20 2026 at 2:30 PM

AZ aim to keep the pressure on league leaders PSV

Form

AZ form: WWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss for the hosts

Telstar form: LLDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors are without a win, recording 2 draws and 3 losses

AZ currently scores more frequently with 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.0

Telstar's goal production is stalling at 0.75 goals compared to their average of 1.42

Statistics

AZ averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per game this season

At home, AZ averages 1.70 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded

Telstar records an average of 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded

On the road, Telstar concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per match

The historical goal average at this stadium is 4.2 goals per game

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in history

2 wins for AZ and 0 wins for Telstar

Goal difference of 3 to 1 for the hosts

The last meeting on January 25 2026 ended in a 1-0 win for AZ

Key Players

Ro-Zangelo Daal scored 4 goals in 6 matches with a rating of 7.85

Mexx Meerdink has recorded 2 goals and 2 assists in 6 matches this season

Peer Koopmeiners impresses in midfield with 1 goal in 6 games and a 7.70 rating

Ronald Koeman Jr. holds a rating of 7.39 after 6 appearances

Abdelnour Soualhia contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 matches

Patrick Brouwer has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 appearances

Goalkeepers

Jari De Busser is in goal for AZ, with the team recording 9 clean sheets

Ronald Koeman Jr. guards the net for Telstar, who have recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage for AZ with an average of 1.70 home goals scored and only 1.13 conceded

Telstar shows significant defensive struggles away from home, conceding 2.25 goals on average

The match will be played on natural grass at the AFAS Stadion

The historical goal average at this venue stands at a high 4.2 goals per match

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