Match report →
AZ – Telstar1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
AZ
2.15
Total xG
3.50
Telstar
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AZ | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.45x league average) | −1.75 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.35 | +1.35 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +1.07 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.66 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Kees Smit on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- AZ averaged 6.8 shots on target with 60.2% ball possession in recent matches
- Telstar averaged only 2.2 shots on target with 40.6% ball possession in recent matches
- The predictive model calculates a 54% probability for a home win with 2.15 expected goals for AZ
Risks
- Telstar recently averaged only 2.2 shots on target per game
- Telstar concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
AZ54%
Draw23%
Telstar23%
Double chance
AZ or draw77%
Telstar or draw46%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AZ: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
AZ 4-2-3-1 · Telstar 3-4-2-1
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 3 W. Goes
- 4 L. Schouten
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 14 C. Stengs
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 11 R. Daal
- 9 M. Meerdink
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 3 G. Alders
- 17 N. Rossen
- 10 T. Owusu
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 7 R. Mendes
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 9 J. Seedorf
Substitutes
- 20 A. Natali
- 34 M. De Wit
- 24 A. Oufkir
- 19 J. Hornkamp
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 12 H. Verhulst
- 8 J. Clasie
- 10 K. Smit
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 29 W. Hoedt
- 42 A. Martha
- 8 E. Demircan
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 15 N. Nwankwo
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 18 G. Caschili
- 21 F. Turay
- 23 N. Shenkman
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