Eredivisie
AZ - Telstar
09/20/2026, 12:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.5
1.4
2:1
9%3:1
7%2:2
6%1:2
6%3:0
5%What influences the xG?
AZ
Telstar
League
The Lab
- 1AZ: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- 2Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- 3Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- 4AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
23%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
67%
No
33%
Key Factors
- AZ averaged 6.8 shots on target with 60.2% ball possession in recent matches
- Telstar averaged only 2.2 shots on target with 40.6% ball possession in recent matches
- The predictive model calculates a 54% probability for a home win with 2.15 expected goals for AZ
Risk Factors
- Telstar recently averaged only 2.2 shots on target per game
- Telstar concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview
AZ in position 2 with 16 points host Telstar in position 12 with 5 points at the AFAS Stadion
Eredivisie match on September 20 2026 at 2:30 PM
AZ aim to keep the pressure on league leaders PSV
Form
AZ form: WWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Recently 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss for the hosts
Telstar form: LLDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The visitors are without a win, recording 2 draws and 3 losses
AZ currently scores more frequently with 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
Telstar's goal production is stalling at 0.75 goals compared to their average of 1.42
Statistics
AZ averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per game this season
At home, AZ averages 1.70 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded
Telstar records an average of 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded
On the road, Telstar concedes a high average of 2.25 goals per match
The historical goal average at this stadium is 4.2 goals per game
Head-to-Head
2 head-to-head matches in history
2 wins for AZ and 0 wins for Telstar
Goal difference of 3 to 1 for the hosts
The last meeting on January 25 2026 ended in a 1-0 win for AZ
Key Players
Ro-Zangelo Daal scored 4 goals in 6 matches with a rating of 7.85
Mexx Meerdink has recorded 2 goals and 2 assists in 6 matches this season
Peer Koopmeiners impresses in midfield with 1 goal in 6 games and a 7.70 rating
Ronald Koeman Jr. holds a rating of 7.39 after 6 appearances
Abdelnour Soualhia contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 matches
Patrick Brouwer has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 appearances
Goalkeepers
Jari De Busser is in goal for AZ, with the team recording 9 clean sheets
Ronald Koeman Jr. guards the net for Telstar, who have recorded 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Home advantage for AZ with an average of 1.70 home goals scored and only 1.13 conceded
Telstar shows significant defensive struggles away from home, conceding 2.25 goals on average
The match will be played on natural grass at the AFAS Stadion
The historical goal average at this venue stands at a high 4.2 goals per match