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Eredivisie

Ajax - Excelsior

09/19/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Ajax
1.8
Total xG
3.4
Excelsior
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
AJAEXC

Ajax

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match)
+0.57
Rising form (4 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.57
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
Attack strength (1.54x league average)
-0.32
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.23
Steven Berghuis on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Tolu Arokodare on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Excelsior

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-1.18
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.67
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2.2 league avg)
-0.56
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.39
+1.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Ajax: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Excelsior: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    Ajax with Oscar Gloukh starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (13/8 games, last 29)

  • 5
    Ajax: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

25%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Ajax averaged 10.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • High scoring venue: The last 5 matches at the Johan Cruijff Arena produced an average of 5.2 goals
  • Both teams are calculated to score with a 68% probability according to the model
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Excelsior concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away match
  • Historical hurdle: Ajax failed to win either of the last 2 head-to-head matches against Excelsior
Overview

Ajax (4th place, 13 points) hosts Excelsior (7th place, 10 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena

Eredivisie match on September 19, 2026, 8:00 PM

Ajax aims to close the gap to the top of the table

Form

Ajax form: WWLWW

Excelsior form: LWWDL

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Ajax is in strong form with two consecutive wins

Excelsior suffered a defeat against FC Utrecht in their last match

Statistics

Ajax averages 1.81 goals scored per match this season

Excelsior concedes an average of 1.89 goals in away matches

Ajax is strong at home with 1.84 goals scored per game

Both teams scored in 24 out of 36 matches for Ajax

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in the database

1 win for Excelsior and 1 draw

Last match ended in a 2-2 draw on February 1, 2026

Excelsior has historically performed well in recent direct encounters

Key Players

Kasper Dolberg has 2 goals and 2 assists in 5 appearances

Oscar Gloukh stands out with 1 goal and 3 assists

Irakli Yegoian has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists for Excelsior

Not in squad for the home side: Steven Berghuis and Tolu Arokodare

Goalkeepers

Marc-André ter Stegen started 5 matches in goal for Ajax

Stijn van Gassel has played 6 games this season for Excelsior

Ajax kept 11 clean sheets overall this season

Excelsior secured 6 clean sheets during this campaign

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Johan Cruijff Arena

An average of 5.2 goals were scored in the last 5 matches at this venue

All of these 5 matches ended with both teams scoring

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