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Ajax – Excelsior2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Ajax
1.75
Total xG
3.42
Excelsior
1.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ajax | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −1.18 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.67 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.57 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.57 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Steven Berghuis on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tolu Arokodare on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Ajax averaged 10.6 shots on target in recent matches
- High scoring venue: The last 5 matches at the Johan Cruijff Arena produced an average of 5.2 goals
- Both teams are calculated to score with a 68% probability according to the model
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Excelsior concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away match
- Historical hurdle: Ajax failed to win either of the last 2 head-to-head matches against Excelsior
All probabilities
Result
Ajax39%
Draw25%
Excelsior36%
Double chance
Ajax or draw64%
Excelsior or draw61%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Excelsior: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Ajax with Oscar Gloukh starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (13/8 games, last 29)
- Ajax: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Ajax 4-3-3 · Excelsior 4-3-3
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 3 A. Gaaei
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 15 Y. Baas
- 12 C. Oliveira Silva
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 24 J. Mokio
- 8 J. Brandt
- 11 V. Tsygankov
- 9 K. Dolberg
- 10 O. Gloukh
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 15 S. Jansson
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 3 R. Meissen
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 7 A. Sliti
- 19 D. Garden
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
Substitutes
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 2 L. Rosa
- 20 O. Edvardsen
- 43 R. Bounida
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 36 D. Janse
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 51 C. Setford
- 26 M. Paes
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
- 12 K. Bos
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 9 M. Dominguez
- 24 G. Cairo
- 28 N. Groen
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 16 C. Aussumone Biai
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 22 O. Turay
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