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Eredivisie

FC Groningen - PEC Zwolle

09/18/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Groningen
1.7
Total xG
3.2
PEC Zwolle
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
FGPZ

FC Groningen

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Tygo Land on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

PEC Zwolle

Attack weakness (0.39x league average)
-1.58
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.91
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match)
+1.44
+1.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    PEC Zwolle: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 3
    FC Groningen: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)

  • 4
    FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

26%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Severe quality loss: Only 14% of the seasonal goal threat is currently available for PEC Zwolle
  • Offensive dominance: FC Groningen recently averaged 5.2 shots on target per match
  • Vulnerable defense: PEC Zwolle concedes an extremely high average of 2.78 goals per away match
Risk Factors
  • Historical head-to-head record: FC Groningen has failed to win any of the last 4 encounters against PEC Zwolle
  • Shaky defense: Groningen recently conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match
  • Injury concerns: A total of 8 players are unavailable in the squad of FC Groningen
Overview

FC Groningen hosts PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie

Match at Euroborg on September 18, 2026, 8:00 PM

Groningen is in 9th place with 8 points, while Zwolle sits 16th with 4 points

The mathematical model calculates a 42% probability for a home win

Form

FC Groningen's current form is WLLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last 5 matches resulted in 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

PEC Zwolle travels with a form of LWLDL

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent matches

Statistics

FC Groningen scored 1.4 goals per game this season and conceded 1.34

PEC Zwolle scored an average of 1.29 goals but conceded 2.09 per match

Zwolle shows extreme defensive issues away from home, conceding 2.78 goals on average

The mathematical model expects 1.70 goals for the home team and 1.45 for the visitors

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head encounters, Groningen recorded 0 wins, Zwolle has 1 win, and 3 matches ended in a draw

The overall goal record is 3 to 5 against Groningen

Their last meeting on March 13, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Thom van Bergen scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists in 6 appearances with a rating of 7.47

Brynjólfur Willumsson has scored 4 goals in 6 games this season with a rating of 7.18

David van der Werff contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 6 matches with a rating of 7.38

Koen Kostons registered 3 goals in 6 games with a rating of 6.67

Dylan Mbayo provided 3 assists in 6 appearances with a rating of 6.96

Ibrahim Cissoko scored 1 goal in 6 matches with a rating of 6.69

Goalkeepers

Etienne Vaessen played 6 matches, provided 1 assist, and holds a rating of 7.21 with 6 clean sheets

Jasper Schendelaar also completed 6 matches and holds a rating of 7.05 with 6 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Euroborg

FC Groningen had 6 days of rest since their last match, while PEC Zwolle had 5 days off

The venue history shows a high average of 4.0 goals per match

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