Match report →
FC Groningen – PEC Zwolle3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Groningen
1.70
Total xG
3.15
PEC Zwolle
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.39x league average) | −1.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.44 | +1.44 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.91 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Tygo Land on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Severe quality loss: Only 14% of the seasonal goal threat is currently available for PEC Zwolle
- Offensive dominance: FC Groningen recently averaged 5.2 shots on target per match
- Vulnerable defense: PEC Zwolle concedes an extremely high average of 2.78 goals per away match
Risks
- Historical head-to-head record: FC Groningen has failed to win any of the last 4 encounters against PEC Zwolle
- Shaky defense: Groningen recently conceded an average of 2.4 goals per match
- Injury concerns: A total of 8 players are unavailable in the squad of FC Groningen
All probabilities
Result
FC Groningen42%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle32%
Double chance
FC Groningen or draw68%
PEC Zwolle or draw58%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- PEC Zwolle: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- FC Groningen: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
FC Groningen 4-2-3-1 · PEC Zwolle 4-1-4-1
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 5 M. Rente
- 4 M. Csinger
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 24 P. Clement
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 9 B. Willumsson
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 2 S. Floranus
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 25 T. Oosting
- 8 T. Sommer
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 10 K. Kostons
Substitutes
- 33 H. Hateboer
- 18 T. Land
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 19 O. Zawada
- 20 N. Eggens
- 44 J. Dillema
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 53 J. Hall
- 30 P. Boevink
- 6 J. Bürger
- 17 S. van Hooijdonk
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 41 D. Verduin
- 42 D. Ruward
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 18 O. Velanas
- 37 G. Wal
- 9 E. Sørensen
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →