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FC Utrecht – Willem II3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Utrecht
1.99
Total xG
3.60
Willem II
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Utrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.23 | +1.23 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −1.01 | |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.94 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.85 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.54 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Artem Stepanov on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Davy van den Berg on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 57% of goal output missing (only 56% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Artem Stepanov and Davy van den Berg are missing, leaving only 56% of usual goal threat available
- Weak away defense: Willem II concedes an average of 3.33 goals per away match
- Model signal: Mathematical model predicts a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and 70% chance of both teams scoring
Risks
- Artem Stepanov and Davy van den Berg missing, only 56% of goal threat available
- Defensive vulnerability for FC Utrecht with an average of 3.6 goals conceded in recent 5 matches
- Willem II averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
FC Utrecht46%
Draw24%
Willem II31%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Double chance
FC Utrecht or draw69%
Willem II or draw54%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 18)
- FC Utrecht: 78% of all goals in the second half (14 of 18, last 11 games)
- FC Utrecht: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Utrecht: 10 of 25 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
- Willem II: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games
- Willem II: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
FC Utrecht 3-4-3 · Willem II 4-2-3-1
FC Utrecht
- 1 V. Barkas
- 2 S. Horemans
- 3 M. Didden
- 5 N. Panayiotou
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 8 J. van Overeem
- 38 O. Agougil
- 92 A. Zagre
- 80 M. Sivertsen Broholm
- 20 D. de Wit
- 10 Y. Cathline
Willem II
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 23 M. Dekker
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 6 C. Twigt
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 7 J. Slory
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 32 V. van Crooij
- 9 D. Haen
Substitutes
- 18 J. Medić
- 22 S. Padt
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 15 A. Blake
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 11 Ángel Galiot
- 17 S. van Duijn
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 21 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 9 A. Stepanov
- 32 P. Kloosterboer
- 39 N. Amrabat
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 14 J. Mathijsen
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 21 W. van der Steen
- 22 P. van Loon
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 10 J. Schuurman
- 18 A. Zarrouk
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