DumbleScore
Match report ā†’
Eredivisie10/10/2026, 04:45 PM

Feyenoord ā€“ AZ2 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Feyenoord
1.96
Total xG
3.84
AZ
1.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorFeyenoordAZ
High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match)+1.28+1.28
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.90
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 2.1 league avg)āˆ’0.73
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)+0.43
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.2 season average)+0.43
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)āˆ’0.21
Attack strength (1.33x league average)+0.18
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)+0.01
Dave Kwakman on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • High probability of goals on both sides: The mathematical model predicts a 74% chance for Both Teams to Score
  • Tactical penetration: Feyenoord averaged 8.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Increasing attacking form: Feyenoord score more frequently in recent matches (3.6 goals) compared to their season average (2.2 goals)

Risks

  • Limited goal threat in the starting XI: Only 34% of season goal production is available in Feyenoord's starting lineup
  • Away defensive vulnerability: AZ concede an average of 2.27 goals per away match this season

All probabilities

Result
Feyenoord40%
Draw23%
AZ37%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.554%
Under 3.546%
Double chance
Feyenoord or draw63%
AZ or draw60%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes74%
No26%

Most likely scores

2:1
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
2:0
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. AZ: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
  2. Feyenoord: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  3. Feyenoord: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  4. AZ: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Lineups

Feyenoord 4-3-3 Ā· AZ 4-3-3

Feyenoord
  • 1 T. Ernst
  • 26 G. Read
  • 6 J. St. Juste
  • 35 M. Marmol Medina
  • 16 J. LĆ³pez Carballo
  • 8 G. ZechiĆ«l
  • 34 C. Vanhoutte
  • 28 O. Targhalline
  • 23 A. Hadj Moussa
  • 19 I. Ferri JuliĆ 
  • 10 L. Valente
AZ
  • 28 J. De Busser
  • 22 E. Dijkstra
  • 3 W. Goes
  • 4 L. Schouten
  • 5 M. ChĆ”vez GarcĆ­a
  • 8 J. Clasie
  • 14 C. Stengs
  • 6 P. Koopmeiners
  • 24 A. Oufkir
  • 9 M. Meerdink
  • 11 R. Daal
Substitutes
  • 39 L. Bossin
  • 27 G. Diarra
  • 24 T. Kraaijeveld
  • 14 S. Steijn
  • 20 M. Deijl
  • 7 J. Slory
  • 22 T. van den Elshout
  • 57 J. Schaken
  • 36 J. Zinhagel
  • 32 T. Wessels
  • 33 F. Kastenmeier
  • 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
  • 34 M. De Wit
  • 21 D. Kwakman
  • 7 W. Pinto Batista
  • 2 S. Maikuma
  • 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
  • 30 D. Kasius
  • 27 W. Bouziane
  • 45 J. Armantrading
  • 31 R. Ichihara
  • 18 BendegĆŗz KovĆ”cs
  • 29 W. Hoedt

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