Match report ā
PEC Zwolle ā SC Cambuur0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
PEC Zwolle
1.35
Total xG
3.22
SC Cambuur
1.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PEC Zwolle | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.23 | +1.23 |
| Attack weakness (0.45x league average) | ā0.75 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.7 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.70 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.56 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ā0.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | ā0.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | ā0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Limited goal threat: PEC Zwolle currently have only 14% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Model advantage: Calculations favor SC Cambuur with a 48% win probability and 1.87 expected goals against 1.35
- Form trend: SC Cambuur are scoring more frequently recently (1.8 goals per match) than their season average (1.4)
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability for PEC Zwolle with an average of 3.0 goals conceded in their last five matches
- Away weakness for SC Cambuur conceding an average of 2.0 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw25%
SC Cambuur48%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Double chance
PEC Zwolle or draw52%
SC Cambuur or draw73%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Cambuur: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 7 games)
- PEC Zwolle: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1 Ā· SC Cambuur 4-2-3-1
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 2 S. Floranus
- 30 R. Thomas
- 8 T. Sommer
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 25 T. Oosting
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 10 K. Kostons
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 2 D. Bouah
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 8 N. Souren
- 15 F. Kvam
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 11 I. Hamache
- 33 M. Maertens
Substitutes
- 6 J. BĆ¼rger
- 17 S. van Hooijdonk
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 41 D. Verduin
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 18 O. Velanas
- 37 G. Wal
- 9 E. SĆørensen
- 22 L. Plogmann
- 23 L. Jetten
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 6 J. Amofa
- 9 S. Vink
- 13 N. Binder
- 16 R. Mulders
- 24 M. Kalisvaart
- 29 I. Henstra
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
- 30 J. Ceka
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