DumbleScore
Match report ā†’
Eredivisie10/11/2026, 12:30 PM

Telstar ā€“ ADO Den Haag2 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Telstar
1.71
Total xG
2.93
ADO Den Haag
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorTelstarADO Den Haag
Attack weakness (0.21x league average)āˆ’1.69
High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match)+1.23+1.23
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean+0.90
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to meanāˆ’0.50
Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 2 league avg)+0.42
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)āˆ’0.29
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average)āˆ’0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)+0.06
Nigel Thomas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
Weak away record (0.4 vs 1 goals/match)

Key factors

  • The model calculates a 47% home win probability for Telstar with 1.71 to 1.22 expected goals
  • Telstar averaged 2.2 shots on target with 39% possession in recent matches
  • ADO Den Haag are still winless this season and have already conceded 17 goals

Risks

  • ADO Den Haag concede an average of 3.00 goals per away match
  • Telstar averaged only 0.5 goals scored per game in their last 5 matches

All probabilities

Result
Telstar47%
Draw27%
ADO Den Haag26%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Telstar or draw74%
ADO Den Haag or draw53%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. ADO Den Haag: opponent scores first in 6 of 7 games (86%)
  2. Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
  3. Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
  4. ADO Den Haag: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games

Lineups

Telstar 4-3-3 Ā· ADO Den Haag 4-4-2

Telstar
  • 1 R. Koeman Jr.
  • 3 G. Alders
  • 16 S. Valk
  • 4 A. Soualhia
  • 43 M. Peersman
  • 23 N. Shenkman
  • 10 T. Owusu
  • 17 N. Rossen
  • 7 R. Mendes
  • 9 J. Seedorf
  • 27 P. Brouwer
ADO Den Haag
  • 1 K. NikieĢ€ma
  • 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
  • 3 P. Mulder
  • 4 M. Waem
  • 15 M. Hokke
  • 24 A. Pozo Pozo
  • 25 J. Kilo
  • 33 M. Å Ć­n
  • 17 J. Hawkins
  • 46 Y. Fereira Eduardo
  • 11 E. Rottier
Substitutes
  • 42 A. Martha
  • 8 E. Demircan
  • 2 J. Hardeveld
  • 20 D. Reiziger
  • 28 R. Oudsten
  • 11 N. ĆžĆ³risson
  • 15 N. Nwankwo
  • 6 I. Ahmed
  • 13 F. Mulder
  • 5 P. Aning
  • 14 H. Kuster
  • 18 G. Caschili
  • 8 J. ŽambÅÆrek
  • 2 O. Raterink
  • 18 S. Sylla
  • 77 D. BĆ”rĆ”ny
  • 7 D. van Mieghem
  • 14 M. Jimenez
  • 16 F. de Bruin
  • 22 L. Wilhelm
  • 9 J. Bal
  • 10 I. de Ruijter
  • 27 I. Thomas
  • 23 N. Thiede

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