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Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Go Ahead Eagles
1.95
Total xG
3.55
Sparta Rotterdam
1.60
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −1.29 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.28 | +1.28 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.83 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.57 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Shunsuke Mito not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Prediction advantage: Model estimates a home win with 45% probability and 1.95 expected goals
- Away defensive struggles: Sparta Rotterdam concede an average of 2.19 goals per away match
- Offensive presence: Go Ahead Eagles averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Lineup goal threat limit: Go Ahead Eagles have only 30% active goal share available in lineup
- Away squad rotation: Shunsuke Mito missing from Sparta Rotterdam starting squad
All probabilities
Result
Go Ahead Eagles45%
Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam31%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Double chance
Go Ahead Eagles or draw69%
Sparta Rotterdam or draw55%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 8 of 9 games (89%)
- Sparta Rotterdam: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- Go Ahead Eagles with Søren Tengstedt starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1 (15/10 games, last 29)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Sparta Rotterdam: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Go Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1 · Sparta Rotterdam 5-4-1
Go Ahead Eagles
- 1 C. Haug
- 2 A. Sampsted
- 25 G. van Zwam
- 4 J. Kramer
- 5 D. James
- 21 M. Meulensteen
- 8 E. Linthorst
- 10 S. Tengstedt
- 16 V. Edvardsen
- 17 M. Suray
- 9 S. Sigurdarson
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 M. Brouwer
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 M. Young
- 6 N. Verschuren
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 7 R. van Cruijsen
- 8 J. Toornstra
- 10 C. Hatenboer
- 11 I. Babadi
- 9 M. Zonneveld
Substitutes
- 34 Yassir Salah Rahmouni
- 11 O. Sivertsen
- 15 R. Weijenberg
- 23 T. Baeten
- 18 R. Margaret
- 3 G. Nauber
- 33 N. Verdoni
- 26 J. Dirksen
- 29 E. Hovden Flataker
- 20 E. Waayers
- 27 T. Galvez
- 6 T. Jukić
- 30 T. Hulleman
- 19 A. Kostić
- 14 T. Quintero León
- 16 J. Baas
- 20 F. Bednarek
- 15 G. Vianello
- 30 P. Kuiper
- 22 J. Ideho
- 18 A. Roaldsöy
- 17 C. Terho
- 12 B. Reith
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