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PSV – SC Heerenveen2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
PSV
2.14
Total xG
3.64
SC Heerenveen
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PSV | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −1.26 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.77 | |
| Attack strength (1.52x league average) | +0.76 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.40 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Ivan Perišić on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ricardo Pepi not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Lutsharel Geertruida on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Paul Wanner not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- PSV show strong offensive power, averaging 7.0 shots on target in recent matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 51% probability for a home win
- Heerenveen travel weakened, with only 19% of their usual goal threat actively available
Risks
- Heerenveen concede an average of 2.13 goals per away game
- PSV suffer from significant injury concerns with 8 players sidelined, including Paul Wanner and Ricardo Pepi
- Rainy weather at the Philips Stadion could make playing conditions on the natural grass difficult
All probabilities
Result
PSV51%
Draw23%
SC Heerenveen26%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Double chance
PSV or draw74%
SC Heerenveen or draw49%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- PSV: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- PSV: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- SC Heerenveen with Maxence Rivera starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (18/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
PSV 4-2-3-1 · SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 4 A. Obispo
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 24 K. Sano
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 20 G. Til
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 21 S. Mijnans
SC Heerenveen
- 22 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 16 M. Linday
- 36 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 14 L. Smans
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
Substitutes
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 5 I. Perišić
- 1 N. Olij
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 27 D. Man
- 18 F. Kostić
- 35 A. Santos
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 41 K. Ngom
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 21 M. Farji
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 15 M. Egbring
- 11 L. Oyen
- 2 M. Hilgers
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 41 J. Scholten
- 17 R. Uldriķis
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