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Fortuna Sittard – FC Twente1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Fortuna Sittard
1.28
Total xG
3.66
FC Twente
2.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fortuna Sittard | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −1.06 | |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.92 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.84 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.61 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.60 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Sondre Ørjasæter not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- FC Twente arrive in strong form with 4 wins in 5 matches and a 61% calculated away win probability
- Fortuna Sittard have only 27% of their seasonal goal production available in the active squad
- FC Twente averaged 8.0 shots on target in recent matches with 56.4% possession
Risks
- Not included in line-up for FC Twente: Sondre Ørjasæter (1 goal, 2 assists)
- Fortuna Sittard concede an average of 1.85 goals per game this season
- FC Twente concede an average of 1.41 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Fortuna Sittard18%
Draw21%
FC Twente61%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Double chance
Fortuna Sittard or draw39%
FC Twente or draw82%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
1:3
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
6%
2:1
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Twente: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)
- Fortuna Sittard: 9 of 23 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- FC Twente: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (11 of 29)
- Fortuna Sittard: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Fortuna Sittard 4-3-3 · FC Twente 4-2-3-1
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 3 R. Guth
- 28 J. Hubner
- 20 E. Michut
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 22 S. ’t Zand
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 25 L. Zeefuik
- 9 A. Descotte
FC Twente
- 16 J. Drommel
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 11 D. Rots
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 9 W. Weghorst
Substitutes
- 10 O. ter Haar Romeny
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 7 K. Peterson
- 38 Moussa Gbemou
- 24 D. Sinkgraven
- 14 J. Simons
- 2 S. Wylin
- 15 N. de Groot
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 39 G.Büyükhan
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 14 K. Hlynsson
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 37 N. Ünüvar
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 31 Y. Gerritsen
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 2 M. Rosiak
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