Match report →
Ajax – NEC Nijmegen1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Ajax
2.36
Total xG
3.90
NEC Nijmegen
1.54
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −1.26 | |
| Attack strength (1.64x league average) | +1.26 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.82 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.70 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.39 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.39 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.37 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 2 season average) | −0.37 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Steven Berghuis not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Davy Klaassen on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Low goal threat: NEC Nijmegen currently have only 16% of their usual goal production available
- Form trend: Ajax are currently scoring more frequently (3.4 goals on average) than their season average (2.1), while NEC Nijmegen averaged only 0.8 goals recently
- Model advantage: Mathematical predictions favor Ajax with a 55% win probability
Risks
- Offensive weakness: NEC Nijmegen averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Defensive vulnerability: NEC Nijmegen concede an average of 1.75 goals per away match
- Missing personnel: Ajax must cope without 5 injured players
All probabilities
Result
Ajax55%
Draw21%
NEC Nijmegen24%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.555%
Under 3.545%
Double chance
Ajax or draw76%
NEC Nijmegen or draw45%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- NEC Nijmegen: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 15 total)
- Ajax with Oscar Gloukh starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (14/8 games, last 29)
- NEC Nijmegen: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
Lineups
Ajax 4-3-3 · NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 15 Y. Baas
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 24 J. Mokio
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 8 J. Brandt
- 11 V. Tsygankov
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 10 O. Gloukh
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 24 D. Fonville
- 21 T. Storm
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 34 K. Kers
- 9 T. Chery
- 10 D. Tadić
- 30 B. Linssen
Substitutes
- 7 S. Adingra
- 28 Y. Bissouma
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 20 O. Edvardsen
- 43 R. Bounida
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 36 D. Janse
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 51 C. Setford
- 26 M. Paes
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 5 M. Bakker
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 12 N. Polster
- 36 F. Entius
- 22 A. Kaplan
- 42 Y. Moslih
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 19 A. Tahaui
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