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Excelsior – FC Groningen1 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Excelsior
1.51
Total xG
3.00
FC Groningen
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Excelsior | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −1.43 | |
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.92 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Tygo Land on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad impact: Only 30% of usual goal danger available in Excelsior's squad
- Tactical trend: Excelsior averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches with 38% possession
- Balanced prediction: Model calculates 37% home win and 36% away win probability
Risks
- Away defensive record: FC Groningen concede an average of 1.81 goals per away match
- Defensive vulnerability: Excelsior conceded 1.65 goals per match on average this season
- Squad absences: FC Groningen have 4 sidelined players
All probabilities
Result
Excelsior37%
Draw27%
FC Groningen36%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
Excelsior or draw64%
FC Groningen or draw63%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Excelsior: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Excelsior 4-3-3 · FC Groningen 4-2-3-1
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 15 S. Jansson
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 3 R. Meissen
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 7 A. Sliti
- 19 D. Garden
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 5 M. Rente
- 33 H. Hateboer
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 24 P. Clement
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 9 B. Willumsson
Substitutes
- 12 K. Bos
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 9 M. Dominguez
- 24 G. Cairo
- 28 N. Groen
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 16 C. Aussumone Biai
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 22 O. Turay
- 4 M. Csinger
- 18 T. Land
- 2 W. Prins
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 19 O. Zawada
- 20 N. Eggens
- 34 R. Metu
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 53 J. Hall
- 30 P. Boevink
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