Match report →
FC Twente – FC Utrecht1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Twente
2.65
Total xG
3.59
FC Utrecht
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Twente | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.35 | +1.35 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +1.32 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.81 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.68 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.60 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Younes Taha on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sondre Ørjasæter not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Artem Stepanov not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Davy van den Berg on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.7 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Twente score 2.25 goals per game at home in the league, FC Utrecht concede 2.75 per game away
- Personnel: A. Stepanov is absent, having scored 5 of the 14 league goals by FC Utrecht players this season (36%)
- Table: FC Twente are 4th with 17 points from 8 games, FC Utrecht are 14th with 8 points from 8 games
Risks
- Personnel: FC Twente without L. Unnerstall, who started in 3 of the last 5 games
- Rest days: FC Twente with 3 days since their last game
- Head to head: FC Utrecht won 2 of the 4 meetings since 2024, FC Twente 1
All probabilities
Result
FC Twente73%
Draw17%
FC Utrecht10%
Double chance
FC Twente or draw90%
FC Utrecht or draw27%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
6%
4:1
5%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Utrecht: 79% of all goals in the second half (15 of 19, last 11 games)
- FC Utrecht: 10 of 26 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
- FC Utrecht: 37% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 19)
Lineups
FC Twente 4-2-3-1 · FC Utrecht 3-4-3
FC Twente
- 16 J. Drommel
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 11 D. Rots
- 14 K. Hlynsson
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
FC Utrecht
- 22 S. Padt
- 2 S. Horemans
- 3 M. Didden
- 5 N. Panayiotou
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 8 J. van Overeem
- 38 O. Agougil
- 92 A. Zagre
- 10 Y. Cathline
- 20 D. de Wit
- 11 Ángel Galiot
Substitutes
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 31 Y. Gerritsen
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 17 F. Thorvaldsen
- 2 M. Rosiak
- 39 J. Meilink
- 80 M. Sivertsen Broholm
- 18 J. Medić
- 1 V. Barkas
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 15 A. Blake
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 17 S. van Duijn
- 31 M. Eppink
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 21 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 47 E. Chigozie Owen
- 32 P. Kloosterboer
- 39 N. Amrabat
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