Match report →
ADO Den Haag – PSV2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
ADO Den Haag
0.97
Total xG
3.56
PSV
2.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | ADO Den Haag | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.88 | |
| Defensive strength (2.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.64 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.62 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.60 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.8 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 17, 15 places gap) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 2, 15 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Nigel Thomas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ivan Perišić on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ruben van Bommel on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paul Wanner not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Weak away record (2 vs 2.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: PSV average 3.25 goals per game away in the league this season, ADO Den Haag concede 2.67 per game at home
- Table: PSV sit 2nd in the league this season after 8 games with 19 points, ADO Den Haag are 17th with 3 points
- Form: ADO Den Haag are winless in 8 league games this season, PSV have 6 wins from 8 games
Risks
- Form: PSV have suffered 2 defeats in their last 5 games in all competitions
- Squad: PSV without P. Wanner, who started 3 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
ADO Den Haag11%
Draw18%
PSV71%
Double chance
ADO Den Haag or draw29%
PSV or draw89%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
0:3
8%
1:3
8%
0:4
5%
1:4
5%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- PSV: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- ADO Den Haag: opponent scores first in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- PSV: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- PSV: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
ADO Den Haag 5-3-2 · PSV 4-2-3-1
ADO Den Haag
- 1 K. Nikièma
- 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
- 22 L. Wilhelm
- 3 P. Mulder
- 4 M. Waem
- 18 S. Sylla
- 8 J. Žambůrek
- 25 J. Kilo
- 11 E. Rottier
- 46 Y. Fereira Eduardo
- 9 J. Bal
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 18 F. Kostić
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 24 K. Sano
- 27 D. Man
- 20 G. Til
- 35 A. Santos
- 21 S. Mijnans
Substitutes
- 33 M. Šín
- 24 A. Pozo Pozo
- 2 O. Raterink
- 20 C. Kramer
- 7 D. van Mieghem
- 14 M. Jimenez
- 16 F. de Bruin
- 17 J. Hawkins
- 10 I. de Ruijter
- 27 I. Thomas
- 21 C. Peupion
- 23 N. Thiede
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 5 I. Perišić
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 42 S. Cornecion
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →