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Telstar – Feyenoord3 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Telstar
1.22
Total xG
3.22
Feyenoord
2.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Telstar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.23 | +1.23 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.50 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.42 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.42 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Luciano Valente on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Feyenoord scores 4 goals per game away in the league, Telstar concedes 2.75 goals per game at home
- Table: Feyenoord leads the league with 20 points from 8 games, Telstar is in 15th place with 6 points
- Shots: Feyenoord averaged 7 shots on target in recent games, Telstar 2.2 shots on target per game
Risks
- Rest days: Feyenoord with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Telstar22%
Draw24%
Feyenoord54%
Double chance
Telstar or draw46%
Feyenoord or draw78%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
3:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Feyenoord with Gjivai Zechiël starting: 3.1 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (10/20 games, last 30)
- Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Feyenoord: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Telstar 4-3-3 · Feyenoord 4-2-3-1
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 3 G. Alders
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 23 N. Shenkman
- 10 T. Owusu
- 17 N. Rossen
- 42 A. Martha
- 11 N. Þórisson
- 27 P. Brouwer
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 14 S. Steijn
- 27 G. Diarra
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
Substitutes
- 8 E. Demircan
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 7 R. Mendes
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 9 J. Seedorf
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 18 G. Caschili
- 21 F. Turay
- 19 F. Rust
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 39 L. Bossin
- 10 L. Valente
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 32 T. Wessels
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
- 50 T. Deligiannidis
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