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NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
NEC Nijmegen
2.05
Total xG
3.21
Fortuna Sittard
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.35 | +1.35 |
| Attack weakness (0.43x league average) | −1.07 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.55 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.42 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 2 season average) | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Tjaronn Chery on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| P. Schuurs on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 65% of goal output missing (only 31% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- xG: NEC Nijmegen with 1.69 xG per game in the league this season, Fortuna Sittard with 0.95 xG per game
- Attack: NEC Nijmegen scores 1.62 goals per game in the league this season, Fortuna Sittard concedes 1.88 goals per game
Risks
- Form: Fortuna Sittard with 3 wins from their last 5 games, NEC Nijmegen without a win
- Table: Fortuna Sittard is in 7th place with 14 points, NEC Nijmegen in 11th with 9 points
- Squad: NEC Nijmegen without D. Tadić, starting in 4 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
NEC Nijmegen57%
Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard20%
Double chance
NEC Nijmegen or draw80%
Fortuna Sittard or draw43%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- NEC Nijmegen: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1 · Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 21 T. Storm
- 22 A. Kaplan
- 24 D. Fonville
- 34 K. Kers
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 18 D. Geiger
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 30 B. Linssen
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 3 R. Guth
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 28 J. Hubner
- 14 J. Simons
- 20 E. Michut
- 22 S. ’t Zand
- 9 A. Descotte
- 25 L. Zeefuik
Substitutes
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 5 M. Bakker
- 12 N. Polster
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 9 T. Chery
- 42 Y. Moslih
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 10 D. Tadić
- 19 A. Tahaui
- 38 J. Geneste
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 7 K. Peterson
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 38 Moussa Gbemou
- 24 D. Sinkgraven
- 2 S. Wylin
- 15 N. de Groot
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 39 G.Büyükhan
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