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SC Heerenveen – Excelsior4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
SC Heerenveen
1.97
Total xG
3.19
Excelsior
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Heerenveen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.15 | +1.15 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2.2 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: SC Heerenveen averaged 53.6% possession in the last 5 games, Excelsior 39.2%
- Shots on target: SC Heerenveen recorded 5.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Excelsior 3.8 per game
Risks
- Away form: Excelsior scores 2.75 goals per game away in the league this season, SC Heerenveen 0.75 goals per game at home
- Table: Excelsior is 9th in the league this season with 11 points, SC Heerenveen is 10th with 9 points
All probabilities
Result
SC Heerenveen53%
Draw24%
Excelsior22%
Double chance
SC Heerenveen or draw78%
Excelsior or draw47%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Excelsior: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Excelsior: 32% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (9 of 28)
Lineups
SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1 · Excelsior 4-3-3
SC Heerenveen
- 1 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 16 M. Linday
- 8 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 14 L. Smans
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 15 S. Jansson
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 3 R. Meissen
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 7 A. Sliti
- 19 D. Garden
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
Substitutes
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 21 M. Farji
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 15 M. Egbring
- 11 L. Oyen
- 49 A. Bouziane
- 2 M. Hilgers
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 17 R. Uldriķis
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 9 M. Dominguez
- 10 N. Naujoks
- 24 G. Cairo
- 28 N. Groen
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 16 C. Aussumone Biai
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 22 O. Turay
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