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PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead Eagles4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
PEC Zwolle
1.44
Total xG
2.92
Go Ahead Eagles
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PEC Zwolle | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.29 | +1.29 |
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −0.39 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.28 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 9, 8 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 17, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Koen Kostons on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 80% of goal output missing (only 61% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Go Ahead Eagles scores 2 goals per game away in the league this season, PEC Zwolle concedes 3.25 per game at home
- Attack: Go Ahead Eagles scores 2.38 goals per game in the league this season and concedes 2.12 per game
Risks
- Table: Go Ahead Eagles is 9th in the league with 11 points from 8 games, PEC Zwolle is 17th with 4 points
- Form: PEC Zwolle suffered 6 losses in 8 league games this season, Go Ahead Eagles 1 loss
All probabilities
Result
PEC Zwolle35%
Draw28%
Go Ahead Eagles37%
Double chance
PEC Zwolle or draw63%
Go Ahead Eagles or draw65%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- Go Ahead Eagles with Søren Tengstedt starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (17/9 games, last 30)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 75% of all goals in the second half (15 of 20, last 11 games)
- PEC Zwolle: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1 · Go Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 2 S. Floranus
- 30 R. Thomas
- 8 T. Sommer
- 37 G. Wal
- 25 T. Oosting
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 17 S. van Hooijdonk
Go Ahead Eagles
- 1 C. Haug
- 2 A. Sampsted
- 25 G. van Zwam
- 4 J. Kramer
- 5 D. James
- 21 M. Meulensteen
- 8 E. Linthorst
- 16 V. Edvardsen
- 10 S. Tengstedt
- 17 M. Suray
- 9 S. Sigurdarson
Substitutes
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 6 J. Bürger
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 10 K. Kostons
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 41 D. Verduin
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 18 O. Velanas
- 9 E. Sørensen
- 34 Yassir Salah Rahmouni
- 11 O. Sivertsen
- 15 R. Weijenberg
- 23 T. Baeten
- 18 R. Margaret
- 3 G. Nauber
- 33 N. Verdoni
- 26 J. Dirksen
- 29 E. Hovden Flataker
- 27 T. Galvez
- 6 T. Jukić
- 30 T. Hulleman
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