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SC Cambuur – AZ2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
SC Cambuur
1.37
Total xG
3.31
AZ
1.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Cambuur | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.29 | +1.29 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.68 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.34 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| F. Kvam on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dave Kwakman on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/away: AZ average 2.25 goals per game away in the league this season, SC Cambuur concede 3.25 per game at home
- Table: AZ are 3rd in the league with 19 points, SC Cambuur 13th with 8 points from 8 games each
- Attack: AZ generated 1.96 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per game
Risks
- Rest days: AZ with 3 days since their last match
- Form: SC Cambuur recorded 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, AZ 2 wins and 2 losses
All probabilities
Result
SC Cambuur26%
Draw25%
AZ50%
Double chance
SC Cambuur or draw50%
AZ or draw74%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AZ: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- SC Cambuur: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 8 games (4 of 11 total)
- AZ: 7 of 24 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- SC Cambuur: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
SC Cambuur 4-2-3-1 · AZ 4-2-3-1
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 2 D. Bouah
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 33 M. Maertens
- 8 N. Souren
- 30 J. Ceka
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 11 I. Hamache
- 13 N. Binder
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 3 W. Goes
- 4 L. Schouten
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 8 J. Clasie
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 24 A. Oufkir
- 14 C. Stengs
- 11 R. Daal
- 9 M. Meerdink
Substitutes
- 22 L. Plogmann
- 23 L. Jetten
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 9 S. Vink
- 15 F. Kvam
- 16 R. Mulders
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 24 M. Kalisvaart
- 29 I. Henstra
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
- 48 D. Westerhof
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 34 M. De Wit
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 30 D. Kasius
- 27 W. Bouziane
- 54 J. Armantrading
- 31 R. Ichihara
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 29 W. Hoedt
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