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FC Groningen – Ajax2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
FC Groningen
1.48
Total xG
3.62
Ajax
2.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Groningen | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.31 | +1.31 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Tygo Land on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tolu Arokodare on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Thilo Kehrer on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Viktor Tsygankov on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 72% available) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Ajax scores 3.67 goals per game away in the league this season, FC Groningen concedes 1.5 at home
- Shots on target: Ajax averages 7.8 shots on target per game in recent matches, FC Groningen 4.8 per game
- Head-to-head: Ajax won 3 of the 5 meetings since 2024, with 1 loss and 1 draw
Risks
- Match interval: Ajax with 3 days since their last match
- xG: FC Groningen generated 1.65 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 2.6 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
FC Groningen26%
Draw23%
Ajax52%
Double chance
FC Groningen or draw49%
Ajax or draw75%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
2:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
2:3
5%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Groningen: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Ajax with Julian Brandt starting: 3 goals/game, without him: 1.9 (10/17 games, last 30)
Lineups
FC Groningen 4-2-3-1 · Ajax 4-2-3-1
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 5 M. Rente
- 33 H. Hateboer
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 24 P. Clement
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 9 B. Willumsson
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 36 D. Janse
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 24 J. Mokio
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 8 J. Brandt
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
Substitutes
- 4 M. Csinger
- 18 T. Land
- 2 W. Prins
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 19 O. Zawada
- 7 T. Hearnes
- 20 N. Eggens
- 34 R. Metu
- 44 J. Dillema
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 30 P. Boevink
- 11 V. Tsygankov
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 28 Y. Bissouma
- 15 Y. Baas
- 43 R. Bounida
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 51 C. Setford
- 26 M. Paes
- 67 M. Abdalla
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