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Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sparta Rotterdam
1.92
Total xG
3.21
Willem II
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.23 | +1.23 |
| Defensive weakness (2.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.89 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.52 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Willem II is 18th without a win in 8 league matches, Sparta Rotterdam is 14th with 6 points
- Away form: Willem II conceded 3.25 goals per away match in the league this season across 4 matches
- Shots on target: Sparta Rotterdam averaged 4.8 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, Willem II 2.6 per match
Risks
- Form: Sparta Rotterdam is winless in their last 5 matches with 2 draws and 3 losses, conceding 3 goals per match
- Home form: Sparta Rotterdam conceded 2.5 goals per home match in the league this season across 4 matches
All probabilities
Result
Sparta Rotterdam51%
Draw25%
Willem II24%
Double chance
Sparta Rotterdam or draw76%
Willem II or draw49%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
6%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sparta Rotterdam: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (12 points lost)
- Willem II: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- Willem II: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Willem II: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Sparta Rotterdam 5-4-1 · Willem II 4-2-3-1
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 M. Brouwer
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 M. Young
- 6 N. Verschuren
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 7 R. van Cruijsen
- 8 J. Toornstra
- 10 C. Hatenboer
- 11 I. Babadi
- 9 M. Zonneveld
Willem II
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 23 M. Dekker
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 18 A. Zarrouk
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 7 J. Slory
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 32 V. van Crooij
- 9 D. Haen
Substitutes
- 19 A. Kostić
- 14 T. Quintero León
- 16 J. Baas
- 20 F. Bednarek
- 15 G. Vianello
- 30 P. Kuiper
- 22 J. Ideho
- 17 M. van Bergen
- 18 A. Roaldsöy
- 21 C. Terho
- 12 B. Reith
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 6 C. Twigt
- 8 K. Boogaard
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 14 J. Mathijsen
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 22 P. van Loon
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 10 J. Schuurman
- 41 T. Kotte
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