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NEC Nijmegen – FC Groningen2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
NEC Nijmegen
2.13
Total xG
3.46
FC Groningen
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | NEC Nijmegen | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.38 | +1.38 |
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −1.02 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.62 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: NEC Nijmegen are unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 1 win and 4 draws
- Defense: FC Groningen allowed 2.12 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data
- Goals: FC Groningen score 2.75 goals per match away in the league this season and concede 2.0
Risks
- Squad: NEC Nijmegen without D. Tadić, in the starting XI in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Table: FC Groningen are 8th in the league with 14 points from 9 matches, NEC Nijmegen 13th with 10 points
All probabilities
Result
NEC Nijmegen55%
Draw23%
FC Groningen22%
Double chance
NEC Nijmegen or draw78%
FC Groningen or draw45%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.13 : 1.33, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
7%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 16 total)
- FC Groningen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1 · FC Groningen 4-2-3-1
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 22 A. Kaplan
- 24 D. Fonville
- 34 K. Kers
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 9 T. Chery
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 30 B. Linssen
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 33 H. Hateboer
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 5 M. Rente
- 4 M. Csinger
- 24 P. Clement
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 9 B. Willumsson
Substitutes
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 18 D. Geiger
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 5 M. Bakker
- 12 N. Polster
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 36 F. Entius
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 21 T. Storm
- 19 A. Tahaui
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 18 T. Land
- 2 W. Prins
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 19 O. Zawada
- 7 T. Hearnes
- 20 N. Eggens
- 44 J. Dillema
- 12 N. Brandis
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 30 P. Boevink
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