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Willem II – SC Cambuur1 : 6
Why the model thinks so
Willem II
1.41
Total xG
3.09
SC Cambuur
1.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Willem II | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.56 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| F. Kvam on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: SC Cambuur recorded 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, Willem II 4 losses and 1 draw
- Table: SC Cambuur is 14th in the league with 9 points from 9 matches, Willem II is 18th with 2 points
- Home/Away: Willem II conceded 2.5 goals per match at home in the league, SC Cambuur scored 1.25 per match away
Risks
- Personnel: SC Cambuur without D. Bouah, in the starting XI in 5 of the last 5 matches
- Defence: SC Cambuur conceded 2.33 goals per match across 9 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Willem II31%
Draw26%
SC Cambuur43%
Double chance
Willem II or draw57%
SC Cambuur or draw69%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.40 : 1.68, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
1:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Willem II: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 9 games)
- SC Cambuur: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 9 games)
- Willem II: scored only after the break in 5 of 9 games
- SC Cambuur: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
- Willem II: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Willem II 4-2-3-1 · SC Cambuur 4-1-4-1
Willem II
- 1 T. Didillon
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 23 M. Dekker
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 6 C. Twigt
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 7 J. Slory
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 32 V. van Crooij
- 9 D. Haen
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 16 R. Mulders
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 8 N. Souren
- 30 J. Ceka
- 33 M. Maertens
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 11 I. Hamache
- 13 N. Binder
Substitutes
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 8 K. Boogaard
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 10 J. Schuurman
- 11 A. Culum
- 18 A. Zarrouk
- 22 L. Plogmann
- 23 L. Jetten
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 9 S. Vink
- 15 F. Kvam
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 24 M. Kalisvaart
- 29 I. Henstra
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
- 18 W. Heide
- 45 B. Vogelzang
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