Match report →
ADO Den Haag – SC Heerenveen2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
ADO Den Haag
1.29
Total xG
3.08
SC Heerenveen
1.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | ADO Den Haag | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.33 | +1.33 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −1.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.69 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.53 | |
| Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.41 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 9, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 17, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Levi Smans not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: SC Heerenveen scores 2 goals per away game in the league, ADO Den Haag concedes 2.25 goals per home game
- Table: SC Heerenveen is 9th in the league with 12 points, ADO Den Haag is 17th with 6 points
- Shots on target: SC Heerenveen averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, ADO Den Haag 3.8 per game
Risks
- Home/Away: ADO Den Haag scores 1.5 goals per home game in the league, SC Heerenveen concedes 1.5 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
ADO Den Haag26%
Draw26%
SC Heerenveen48%
Double chance
ADO Den Haag or draw52%
SC Heerenveen or draw74%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.29 : 1.79, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- ADO Den Haag: opponent scores first in 8 of 9 games (89%)
- SC Heerenveen: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- ADO Den Haag: scored only after the break in 5 of 9 games
- SC Heerenveen with Maxence Rivera starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (18/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
ADO Den Haag 4-4-2 · SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
ADO Den Haag
- 1 K. Nikièma
- 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
- 3 P. Mulder
- 4 M. Waem
- 18 S. Sylla
- 17 J. Hawkins
- 33 M. Šín
- 25 J. Kilo
- 11 E. Rottier
- 9 J. Bal
- 46 Y. Fereira Eduardo
SC Heerenveen
- 1 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 16 M. Linday
- 8 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
Substitutes
- 24 A. Pozo Pozo
- 8 J. Žambůrek
- 2 O. Raterink
- 7 D. van Mieghem
- 14 M. Jimenez
- 15 M. Hokke
- 16 F. de Bruin
- 22 L. Wilhelm
- 10 I. de Ruijter
- 27 I. Thomas
- 21 C. Peupion
- 23 N. Thiede
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 21 M. Farji
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 15 M. Egbring
- 11 L. Oyen
- 49 A. Bouziane
- 2 M. Hilgers
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 17 R. Uldriķis
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