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AZ – FC Twente0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
AZ
1.61
Total xG
3.34
FC Twente
1.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AZ | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.91 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.82 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.63 | |
| Attack strength (1.49x league average) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.46 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| C. Stengs on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ayoub Oufkir on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.6 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: AZ score 2.25 goals per game at home in the Eredivisie, FC Twente score 1.75 goals per game away
- Shots: FC Twente average 20.8 shots per game in recent matches, while AZ average 13.6
Risks
- Table: AZ are 3rd in the Eredivisie with 20 points, while FC Twente are 6th with 17 points
- Head-to-head: AZ won 3 of the last 5 meetings against FC Twente, with FC Twente winning 1
- Rest days: FC Twente with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
AZ35%
Draw25%
FC Twente40%
Double chance
AZ or draw60%
FC Twente or draw65%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.61 : 1.73, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AZ: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Mexx Meerdink: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Twente: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
AZ 4-2-3-1 · FC Twente 4-2-3-1
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 4 L. Schouten
- 29 W. Hoedt
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 11 R. Daal
- 9 M. Meerdink
FC Twente
- 16 J. Drommel
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 11 D. Rots
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
Substitutes
- 3 W. Goes
- 34 M. De Wit
- 24 A. Oufkir
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 30 D. Kasius
- 8 J. Clasie
- 27 W. Bouziane
- 14 C. Stengs
- 54 J. Armantrading
- 31 R. Ichihara
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 75 H. de Wit
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 14 K. Hlynsson
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 31 Y. Gerritsen
- 2 M. Rosiak
- 39 J. Meilink
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