Match report →
PSV – Feyenoord1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
PSV
1.97
Total xG
3.48
Feyenoord
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PSV | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.38 | +1.38 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.45 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.7 season average) | −0.45 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| Sven Mijnans not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 99% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home: PSV average 3.25 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Head-to-head: PSV won 4 of the 5 meetings against Feyenoord, with 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Feyenoord have 4 wins from their last 5 matches, PSV have 2 wins
- Table: Feyenoord are 1st in the league with 23 points from 9 matches, PSV are 3rd with 19 points
All probabilities
Result
PSV47%
Draw24%
Feyenoord29%
Double chance
PSV or draw71%
Feyenoord or draw53%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.97 : 1.51, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Feyenoord: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Feyenoord with Gjivai Zechiël starting: 2.9 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (12/18 games, last 30)
- Feyenoord: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
PSV 4-2-3-1 · Feyenoord 4-3-3
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 18 F. Kostić
- 24 K. Sano
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 20 G. Til
- 5 I. Perišić
- 7 R. van Bommel
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
Substitutes
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 25 K. Sildillia
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 27 D. Man
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 35 A. Santos
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 42 S. Cornecion
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 39 L. Bossin
- 7 J. Moder
- 27 G. Diarra
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
- 50 T. Deligiannidis
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