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Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Fortuna Sittard
1.46
Total xG
2.97
Excelsior
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.38 | +1.38 |
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.87 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.30 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Mohamed Ihattaren on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Anthony Descotte on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Lequincio Zeefuik on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 69% of goal output missing (only 40% available) | ||
| Simon Janssen on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| David Garden on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Attacking: Both teams scored 1.78 goals per game in the league this season
- Defense: Fortuna Sittard conceded 1.89 goals per game in the league this season, Excelsior 2.0 per game
Risks
- Form: Fortuna Sittard won 2 of their last 5 games, Excelsior remained without a win in their last 5 games
- Table: Fortuna Sittard rank 7th with 15 points from 9 games, Excelsior rank 12th with 11 points from 9 games
All probabilities
Result
Fortuna Sittard35%
Draw27%
Excelsior38%
Double chance
Fortuna Sittard or draw62%
Excelsior or draw65%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.46 : 1.51, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Excelsior: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Fortuna Sittard: 9 of 23 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Excelsior: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)
- Excelsior: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Fortuna Sittard 5-4-1 · Excelsior 4-3-3
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 3 R. Guth
- 28 J. Hubner
- 15 N. de Groot
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 20 E. Michut
- 14 J. Simons
- 7 K. Peterson
- 22 S. ’t Zand
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 3 R. Meissen
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 12 K. Bos
- 10 N. Naujoks
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 7 A. Sliti
- 28 N. Groen
- 8 I. Yegoian
Substitutes
- 10 O. ter Haar Romeny
- 25 L. Zeefuik
- 9 A. Descotte
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 8 J. Dahlhaus
- 4 I. Márquez Álvarez
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 5 Y. Oukili
- 24 D. Sinkgraven
- 2 S. Wylin
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 39 G.Büyükhan
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
- 9 M. Dominguez
- 24 G. Cairo
- 15 S. Jansson
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 16 C. Aussumone Biai
- 19 D. Garden
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