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FC Utrecht – PEC Zwolle1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Utrecht
1.95
Total xG
3.00
PEC Zwolle
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.36 | +1.36 |
| Attack weakness (0.51x league average) | −0.80 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Artem Stepanov on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Davy van den Berg on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Koen Kostons on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ibrahim Cissoko on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 80% available) |
Key factors
- Form: FC Utrecht with 3 wins from their last 5 matches, PEC Zwolle with 1
- Table: FC Utrecht in 11th place with 11 points from 9 matches, PEC Zwolle in 15th with 7 points
- Head-to-head: FC Utrecht with 2 wins from 4 matches against PEC Zwolle alongside 2 draws
Risks
- Defense: FC Utrecht conceded 14 goals in 4 home matches in the league this season (3.5 per match)
All probabilities
Result
FC Utrecht57%
Draw24%
PEC Zwolle19%
Double chance
FC Utrecht or draw81%
PEC Zwolle or draw43%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.95 : 1.05, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Utrecht: 79% of all goals in the second half (15 of 19, last 11 games)
- PEC Zwolle: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Utrecht: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 19)
Lineups
FC Utrecht 4-2-3-1 · PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
FC Utrecht
- 22 S. Padt
- 2 S. Horemans
- 3 M. Didden
- 5 N. Panayiotou
- 92 A. Zagre
- 8 J. van Overeem
- 38 O. Agougil
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 10 Y. Cathline
- 11 Ángel Galiot
- 20 D. de Wit
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 30 R. Thomas
- 8 T. Sommer
- 37 G. Wal
- 25 T. Oosting
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 17 S. van Hooijdonk
Substitutes
- 18 J. Medić
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 15 A. Blake
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 17 S. van Duijn
- 31 M. Eppink
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 21 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 9 A. Stepanov
- 32 P. Kloosterboer
- 39 N. Amrabat
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 7 Y. Namli
- 6 J. Bürger
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 2 S. Floranus
- 10 K. Kostons
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 41 D. Verduin
- 42 D. Ruward
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 9 E. Sørensen
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