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Go Ahead Eagles – Telstar3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Go Ahead Eagles
1.58
Total xG
3.25
Telstar
1.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Go Ahead Eagles | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.43x league average) | −1.65 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.34 | +1.34 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.92 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Go Ahead Eagles with 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, Telstar with 2 draws and 3 losses
- Defense: Go Ahead Eagles concede 2.33 goals per match in the league this season, Telstar concede 2.0 per match
Risks
- Home/Away: Go Ahead Eagles score 2.75 goals per match at home in the league this season, Telstar score 0.5 per match away
All probabilities
Result
Go Ahead Eagles35%
Draw26%
Telstar39%
Double chance
Go Ahead Eagles or draw61%
Telstar or draw65%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.58 : 1.67, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Go Ahead Eagles: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Go Ahead Eagles with Søren Tengstedt starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (18/8 games, last 30)
- Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 71% of all goals in the second half (15 of 21, last 11 games)
Lineups
Go Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1 · Telstar 4-2-3-1
Go Ahead Eagles
- 1 C. Haug
- 2 A. Sampsted
- 26 J. Dirksen
- 4 J. Kramer
- 5 D. James
- 21 M. Meulensteen
- 8 E. Linthorst
- 11 O. Sivertsen
- 10 S. Tengstedt
- 17 M. Suray
- 16 V. Edvardsen
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 18 G. Caschili
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 23 N. Shenkman
- 17 N. Rossen
- 42 A. Martha
- 10 T. Owusu
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 11 N. Þórisson
Substitutes
- 34 Yassir Salah Rahmouni
- 25 G. van Zwam
- 15 R. Weijenberg
- 23 T. Baeten
- 18 R. Margaret
- 3 G. Nauber
- 33 N. Verdoni
- 29 E. Hovden Flataker
- 24 J. Cillessen
- 9 S. Sigurdarson
- 27 T. Galvez
- 6 T. Jukić
- 3 G. Alders
- 8 E. Demircan
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 7 R. Mendes
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 9 J. Seedorf
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 21 F. Turay
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