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Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sparta Rotterdam
1.22
Total xG
3.71
Ajax
2.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.35 | +1.35 |
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.86 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.59 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Oscar Gloukh on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Davy Klaassen on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Ajax averages 4 goals scored per away game in the league this season, Sparta Rotterdam concedes 2.4 goals per home game
- Table: Ajax ranks 4th in the league with 18 points, Sparta Rotterdam is 14th with 9 points
- Head-to-head: Ajax won 2 of the 4 head-to-head meetings since 2024, Sparta Rotterdam won 0
Risks
- Rest days: Ajax with 3 days since their last match
- Defense: Sparta Rotterdam allowed 2.04 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 3 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Sparta Rotterdam16%
Draw20%
Ajax64%
Double chance
Sparta Rotterdam or draw36%
Ajax or draw84%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.22 : 2.49, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:3
8%
0:3
6%
2:2
6%
1:4
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sparta Rotterdam: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Ajax with Julian Brandt starting: 3.1 goals/game, without him: 1.8 (12/15 games, last 30)
- Sparta Rotterdam: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Sparta Rotterdam 5-4-1 · Ajax 4-3-3
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 M. Brouwer
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 M. Young
- 6 N. Verschuren
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 7 R. van Cruijsen
- 8 J. Toornstra
- 10 C. Hatenboer
- 11 I. Babadi
- 9 M. Zonneveld
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 36 D. Janse
- 15 Y. Baas
- 24 J. Mokio
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 8 J. Brandt
- 11 V. Tsygankov
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 68 A. Ouazane
Substitutes
- 19 A. Kostić
- 14 T. Quintero León
- 16 J. Baas
- 20 F. Bednarek
- 15 G. Vianello
- 30 P. Kuiper
- 22 J. Ideho
- 17 M. van Bergen
- 18 A. Roaldsöy
- 21 C. Terho
- 12 B. Reith
- 17 D. Blind
- 28 Y. Bissouma
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 22 J. Heerkens
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 43 R. Bounida
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 26 M. Paes
- 67 M. Abdalla
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
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