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Feyenoord – Fortuna Sittard1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Feyenoord
2.81
Total xG
3.64
Fortuna Sittard
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Attack weakness (0.41x league average) | −1.16 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.81 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Edouard Michut on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: Feyenoord score 2.75 goals per match at home in the league, Fortuna Sittard concede 1.6 per match away
- Table: Feyenoord are 1st with 24 points from 10 matches, Fortuna Sittard 6th with 18 points
- Head-to-head: Feyenoord won 3 of the 4 meetings, Fortuna Sittard 0 with 1 draw
Risks
- Squad: Feyenoord without J. St. Juste, in the starting XI in 4 of the last 5 matches
- Away form: Fortuna Sittard score 2.2 goals per match away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Feyenoord77%
Draw15%
Fortuna Sittard8%
Double chance
Feyenoord or draw92%
Fortuna Sittard or draw23%
No draw85%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.81 : 0.83, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
7%
4:1
6%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Feyenoord: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Feyenoord with Gjivai Zechiël starting: 2.8 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (13/17 games, last 30)
Lineups
Feyenoord 4-3-3 · Fortuna Sittard 5-4-1
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 3 R. Guth
- 28 J. Hubner
- 8 J. Dahlhaus
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 9 A. Descotte
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 22 S. ’t Zand
- 25 L. Zeefuik
Substitutes
- 39 L. Bossin
- 27 G. Diarra
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 32 T. Wessels
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
- 50 T. Deligiannidis
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 7 K. Peterson
- 4 I. Márquez Álvarez
- 20 E. Michut
- 38 Moussa Gbemou
- 24 D. Sinkgraven
- 14 J. Simons
- 2 S. Wylin
- 15 N. de Groot
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 35 K. Burgsteden
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