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SC Heerenveen – NEC Nijmegen1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
SC Heerenveen
1.86
Total xG
3.54
NEC Nijmegen
1.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.08 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.68 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.38 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.29 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: SC Heerenveen won 3 of their last 5 matches, NEC Nijmegen 1
- Table: SC Heerenveen is 7th with 15 points from 10 matches, NEC Nijmegen 12th with 11 points
Risks
- Form: NEC Nijmegen is undefeated in their last 5 matches with 1 win and 4 draws
- Away form: NEC Nijmegen averages 2 goals per away match in the league this season in 4 matches, SC Heerenveen 1.4 at home
All probabilities
Result
SC Heerenveen42%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen34%
Double chance
SC Heerenveen or draw66%
NEC Nijmegen or draw58%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.86 : 1.68, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
4%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- NEC Nijmegen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SC Heerenveen with Maxence Rivera starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (18/6 games, last 30)
- NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1 · NEC Nijmegen 3-1-4-2
SC Heerenveen
- 1 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 16 M. Linday
- 8 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 14 L. Smans
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 21 T. Storm
- 4 P. Schuurs
- 22 A. Kaplan
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 34 K. Kers
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 9 T. Chery
- 30 B. Linssen
Substitutes
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 21 M. Farji
- 6 D. Proper
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 15 M. Egbring
- 11 L. Oyen
- 2 M. Hilgers
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 17 R. Uldriķis
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 12 N. Polster
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 36 F. Entius
- 42 Y. Moslih
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 24 D. Fonville
- 77 A. Thomas
- 19 A. Tahaui
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