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Telstar – FC Utrecht4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Telstar
1.63
Total xG
2.99
FC Utrecht
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Telstar | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.52 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Patrick Brouwer on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Noach Shenkman on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Ángel Alarcón on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 76% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Telstar scores 1.6 goals per game at home in the league, FC Utrecht concedes 2.4 per game away
- Goals: FC Utrecht scores 1.6 goals per game away in the league, Telstar concedes 3 goals per game at home
Risks
- Form: FC Utrecht won 3 of their last 5 matches, Telstar zero
- Table: FC Utrecht is 11th with 12 points from 10 matches, Telstar is 16th with 6 points from 10 matches
- Personnel: Telstar without G. Alders, in the starting XI in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Telstar42%
Draw27%
FC Utrecht31%
Double chance
Telstar or draw69%
FC Utrecht or draw58%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.63 : 1.36, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Utrecht: 83% of all goals in the second half (15 of 18, last 11 games)
- Telstar: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Utrecht: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Telstar 4-2-3-1 · FC Utrecht 4-2-3-1
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 18 G. Caschili
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 17 N. Rossen
- 42 A. Martha
- 10 T. Owusu
- 8 E. Demircan
- 11 N. Þórisson
FC Utrecht
- 22 S. Padt
- 2 S. Horemans
- 3 M. Didden
- 5 N. Panayiotou
- 92 A. Zagre
- 8 J. van Overeem
- 38 O. Agougil
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 80 M. Sivertsen Broholm
- 10 Y. Cathline
- 20 D. de Wit
Substitutes
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 15 N. Nwankwo
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 21 F. Turay
- 23 N. Shenkman
- 19 F. Rust
- 18 J. Medić
- 1 V. Barkas
- 15 A. Blake
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 11 Ángel Galiot
- 17 S. van Duijn
- 31 M. Eppink
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 21 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 9 A. Stepanov
- 32 P. Kloosterboer
- 39 N. Amrabat
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