Match report →
FC Groningen – Sparta Rotterdam2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
FC Groningen
1.88
Total xG
3.27
Sparta Rotterdam
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.23 | +1.23 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| David van der Werff on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Groningen averages 2.2 goals per game at home in the league, Sparta Rotterdam concedes 2.5 per game away
- Table: FC Groningen is 8th in the league with 15 points from 10 games, Sparta Rotterdam is 14th with 9 points
- Form: FC Groningen recorded 2 wins in their last 5 games, while Sparta Rotterdam suffered 3 defeats in that span
Risks
- Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam won 3 of the last 4 meetings with FC Groningen
- Defense: FC Groningen concedes 2.2 goals per game at home in the league, while Sparta Rotterdam scores 2.0 per game away
All probabilities
Result
FC Groningen48%
Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam27%
Double chance
FC Groningen or draw73%
Sparta Rotterdam or draw52%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.88 : 1.39, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
7%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sparta Rotterdam: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sparta Rotterdam: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Sparta Rotterdam: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- FC Groningen: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
FC Groningen 4-2-3-1 · Sparta Rotterdam 5-4-1
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 33 H. Hateboer
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 5 M. Rente
- 4 M. Csinger
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 24 P. Clement
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 9 B. Willumsson
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 M. Brouwer
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 M. Young
- 6 N. Verschuren
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 7 M. van Bergen
- 10 J. Toornstra
- 8 C. Hatenboer
- 11 I. Babadi
- 9 M. Zonneveld
Substitutes
- 18 T. Land
- 2 W. Prins
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 29 T. Mercera
- 17 D. van der Werff
- 19 O. Zawada
- 20 N. Eggens
- 44 J. Dillema
- 12 N. Brandis
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 53 J. Hall
- 30 P. Boevink
- 19 A. Kostić
- 21 S. Mito
- 14 T. Quintero León
- 13 J. Baas
- 20 F. Bednarek
- 15 G. Vianello
- 30 P. Kuiper
- 22 J. Ideho
- 18 R. van Cruijsen
- 16 A. Roaldsöy
- 17 C. Terho
- 12 B. Reith
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →