Match report →
PSV – Willem II7 : 0
Why the model thinks so
PSV
3.44
Total xG
4.20
Willem II
0.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PSV | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.51x league average) | +1.70 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Defensive weakness (3.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +1.16 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.92 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.68 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.50 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 2.7 season average) | −0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 18, 15 places gap) | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 3, 15 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Esmir Bajraktarevic on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: PSV averages 2.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, Willem II concedes 3.2 per game away
- Table: PSV ranks 3rd in the league with 20 points from 10 games, Willem II is 18th with 2 points from 10 games
- Form: PSV has 6 wins from 10 league games this season, while Willem II remains winless after 10 league games
Risks
- Form: PSV won only 2 of their last 5 matches in all competitions (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
All probabilities
Result
PSV86%
Draw10%
Willem II4%
Double chance
PSV or draw96%
Willem II or draw14%
No draw90%
Goals
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Over 3.560%
Under 3.540%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
3:0
From xG 3.44 : 0.76, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
4:0
9%
3:1
8%
2:1
7%
4:1
7%
7:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Willem II: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 10 games)
- Willem II: scored only after the break in 6 of 10 games
- Willem II: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Willem II: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
Lineups
PSV 3-4-1-2 · Willem II 4-4-1-1
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 8 S. Dest
- 24 K. Sano
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 20 G. Til
- 5 I. Perišić
Willem II
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 3 F. Stam
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 23 M. Dekker
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 6 C. Twigt
- 18 A. Zarrouk
- 32 V. van Crooij
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 9 D. Haen
Substitutes
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 25 K. Sildillia
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 27 D. Man
- 9 R. Pepi
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 18 F. Kostić
- 35 A. Santos
- 37 A. Bouhamdi
- 42 S. Cornecion
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 8 K. Boogaard
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 1 T. Didillon
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 21 W. van der Steen
- 22 P. van Loon
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 10 J. Schuurman
- 11 A. Culum
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