Match report →
PEC Zwolle – ADO Den Haag1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
PEC Zwolle
1.55
Total xG
2.95
ADO Den Haag
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PEC Zwolle | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.35x league average) | −1.18 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Thijs Oosting on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Koen Kostons on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ibrahim Cissoko on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: PEC Zwolle is 15th in the league after 10 games with 8 points, ADO Den Haag is 17th with 6 points
- Defense: PEC Zwolle concedes 2.8 goals per home game in the league this season, ADO Den Haag 2.2 per away game
Risks
- Squad: PEC Zwolle without S. Floranus, starting in 3 of the last 5 games
- Attack: ADO Den Haag scores 1.3 goals per game in the league this season, PEC Zwolle 1.1 per game
All probabilities
Result
PEC Zwolle40%
Draw27%
ADO Den Haag33%
Double chance
PEC Zwolle or draw67%
ADO Den Haag or draw60%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.55 : 1.40, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- ADO Den Haag: opponent scores first in 9 of 10 games (90%)
- ADO Den Haag: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 10 games)
- ADO Den Haag: scored only after the break in 6 of 10 games
- PEC Zwolle: 77% of all goals in the second half (10 of 13, last 12 games)
- PEC Zwolle: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- PEC Zwolle: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
PEC Zwolle 4-3-3 · ADO Den Haag 4-3-3
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 28 S. Graves Jensen
- 24 N. Viergever
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 37 G. Wal
- 30 R. Thomas
- 8 T. Sommer
- 7 Y. Namli
- 17 S. van Hooijdonk
- 11 D. Mbayo
ADO Den Haag
- 1 K. Nikièma
- 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
- 3 P. Mulder
- 4 M. Waem
- 15 M. Hokke
- 25 J. Kilo
- 11 E. Rottier
- 33 M. Šín
- 17 J. Hawkins
- 46 Y. Fereira Eduardo
- 27 I. Thomas
Substitutes
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 6 J. Bürger
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 10 K. Kostons
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 25 T. Oosting
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 41 D. Verduin
- 42 D. Ruward
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 9 E. Sørensen
- 8 J. Žambůrek
- 2 O. Raterink
- 18 S. Sylla
- 77 D. Bárány
- 7 D. van Mieghem
- 14 M. Jimenez
- 16 F. de Bruin
- 22 L. Wilhelm
- 9 J. Bal
- 10 I. de Ruijter
- 21 C. Peupion
- 23 N. Thiede
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