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Ajax – AZ1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Ajax
2.09
Total xG
3.52
AZ
1.43
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.28 | +1.28 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Oscar Gloukh on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Thilo Kehrer on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Viktor Tsygankov not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mateo Chávez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ayoub Oufkir not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Attack: Ajax scores 2.9 goals per game in the league this season, AZ concedes 1.4 goals per game away
- Form: Ajax recorded 3 wins from their last 5 games, AZ earned 2 wins
- Shots on target: Ajax averaged 6.2 shots on target per game over the last 5 games, AZ 5.4 per game
Risks
- Head-to-head: AZ won 2 of the 4 meetings since 2024, Ajax won 0
- Defense: Ajax concedes 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Ajax52%
Draw23%
AZ25%
Double chance
Ajax or draw75%
AZ or draw48%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.09 : 1.43, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Ajax: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Ajax with Julian Brandt starting: 3 goals/game, without him: 1.9 (13/14 games, last 30)
- Mexx Meerdink: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- AZ: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Ajax 4-3-3 · AZ 4-2-3-1
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 15 Y. Baas
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 24 J. Mokio
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 8 J. Brandt
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 99 T. Arokodare
- 68 A. Ouazane
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 3 W. Goes
- 4 L. Schouten
- 34 M. De Wit
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 11 R. Daal
- 9 M. Meerdink
Substitutes
- 17 D. Blind
- 6 T. Kehrer
- 28 Y. Bissouma
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 43 R. Bounida
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 36 D. Janse
- 26 M. Paes
- 67 M. Abdalla
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
- 49 D. Pugno
- 20 A. Natali
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 30 D. Kasius
- 8 J. Clasie
- 27 W. Bouziane
- 14 C. Stengs
- 54 J. Armantrading
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 29 W. Hoedt
- 75 H. de Wit
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