Match report →
Excelsior – FC Twente0 : 9
Why the model thinks so
Excelsior
1.12
Total xG
3.42
FC Twente
2.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Excelsior | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.26 | +1.26 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.77 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.64 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| Simon Janssen on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| David Garden on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Daouda Weidmann not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 94% available) |
Key factors
- Table: FC Twente is in 4th place with 20 points from 10 matches, Excelsior is 13th with 11 points from 10 matches
- Form: FC Twente won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Excelsior went winless in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Excelsior concedes 2.5 goals per match at home in the league this season, FC Twente scores 1.8 away per match
Risks
- Attack: Excelsior has scored 1.6 goals per match in 10 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Excelsior16%
Draw21%
FC Twente63%
Double chance
Excelsior or draw37%
FC Twente or draw84%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.12 : 2.30, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
0:2
9%
1:3
7%
0:3
7%
0:9
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Excelsior: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Twente: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Twente: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Qarabağ: 3 goals (90+2', 94', 114')
- Excelsior: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)
- Excelsior: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Excelsior 4-3-3 · FC Twente 4-3-3
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 3 R. Meissen
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 12 K. Bos
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 10 N. Naujoks
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 7 A. Sliti
- 28 N. Groen
- 8 I. Yegoian
FC Twente
- 16 J. Drommel
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 11 D. Rots
- 9 W. Weghorst
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
Substitutes
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
- 9 M. Dominguez
- 24 G. Cairo
- 15 S. Jansson
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 10 K. Tokura
- 16 C. Aussumone Biai
- 19 D. Garden
- 23 Y. Muse Finey
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 14 K. Hlynsson
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 31 Y. Gerritsen
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 2 M. Rosiak
- 39 J. Meilink
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