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AZ – FC Groningen4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
AZ
2.14
Total xG
3.27
FC Groningen
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AZ | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −1.09 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.63 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.43 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.33 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.14 | |
| David van der Werff not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: AZ are 5th in the league this season with 20 points from 11 games, FC Groningen 9th with 15 points
- Home/Away: AZ average 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, FC Groningen concede 2 per game away
Risks
- Rest days: AZ with 3 days since their last match
- Form: AZ won 1 of their last 5 matches, FC Groningen won 2
All probabilities
Result
AZ59%
Draw23%
FC Groningen18%
Double chance
AZ or draw82%
FC Groningen or draw41%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.14 : 1.14, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Groningen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Mexx Meerdink: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- FC Groningen: 65% of all goals in the first half (17 of 26, last 12 games)
- FC Groningen: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (12 points lost)
Lineups
AZ 4-2-3-1 · FC Groningen 4-2-3-1
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 3 W. Goes
- 29 W. Hoedt
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 24 A. Oufkir
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 11 R. Daal
- 9 M. Meerdink
FC Groningen
- 1 E. Vaessen
- 33 H. Hateboer
- 3 T. Blokzijl
- 5 M. Rente
- 4 M. Csinger
- 8 T. de Jonge
- 24 P. Clement
- 14 J. Schreuders
- 26 T. van Bergen
- 11 J. Ondrejka
- 9 B. Willumsson
Substitutes
- 20 A. Natali
- 34 M. De Wit
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 12 H. Verhulst
- 30 D. Kasius
- 8 J. Clasie
- 10 K. Smit
- 27 W. Bouziane
- 14 C. Stengs
- 4 L. Schouten
- 31 R. Ichihara
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 18 T. Land
- 2 W. Prins
- 13 L. Štubljar
- 29 T. Mercera
- 19 O. Zawada
- 20 N. Eggens
- 15 E. van der Laan
- 44 J. Dillema
- 12 N. Brandis
- 16 A. Nordin
- 42 J. Mosselaar
- 30 P. Boevink
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