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Willem II – PEC Zwolle1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Willem II
1.45
Total xG
2.87
PEC Zwolle
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Willem II | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.84 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 2 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Thijs Oosting on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense: Willem II concedes 3.2 goals per game at home in the league this season, PEC Zwolle 1.8 away
- Possession: Willem II averaged 44.2% possession over the last 5 games, PEC Zwolle 41.8%
Risks
- Table: PEC Zwolle is 14th in the league with 11 points from 11 games, Willem II is 18th with 2 points
- Form: PEC Zwolle has 2 wins from the last 5 games, while Willem II lost all 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Willem II37%
Draw28%
PEC Zwolle35%
Double chance
Willem II or draw65%
PEC Zwolle or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.45 : 1.42, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Willem II: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 11 games)
- Willem II: scored only after the break in 6 of 11 games
- Willem II: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Willem II: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
Lineups
Willem II 4-2-3-1 · PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
Willem II
- 26 M. Delanghe
- 5 H. ter Avest
- 3 F. Stam
- 23 M. Dekker
- 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
- 18 A. Zarrouk
- 6 C. Twigt
- 52 T. Trindade de Vilhena
- 19 U. van Aalst
- 32 V. van Crooij
- 9 D. Haen
PEC Zwolle
- 1 J. Schendelaar
- 3 O. Aertssen
- 4 T. Velthuis
- 24 N. Viergever
- 33 D. van der Haar
- 30 R. Thomas
- 8 T. Sommer
- 37 G. Wal
- 7 Y. Namli
- 11 D. Mbayo
- 17 S. van Hooijdonk
Substitutes
- 17 C. Obi-Martin
- 8 K. Boogaard
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 2 A. Ciranni
- 15 A. Et-Taibi
- 21 W. van der Steen
- 22 P. van Loon
- 28 T. Verheydt
- 31 K. de Leeuw
- 83 M. Lemmens
- 10 J. Schuurman
- 11 A. Culum
- 22 I. Cissoko
- 6 J. Bürger
- 10 K. Kostons
- 16 T. de Graaff
- 20 G. Reiziger
- 25 T. Oosting
- 26 J. Pereira da Gama
- 41 D. Verduin
- 42 D. Ruward
- 34 N. Fichtinger
- 9 E. Sørensen
- 43 T. Bos
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