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Fortuna Sittard – Telstar2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Fortuna Sittard
1.33
Total xG
2.99
Telstar
1.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fortuna Sittard | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.39x league average) | −1.45 | |
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.74 | |
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.44 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Lequincio Zeefuik on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Edouard Michut not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Guth on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Noach Shenkman on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: Telstar scored 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 games, Fortuna Sittard 1.2 per game
- Defense: Fortuna Sittard allowed 1.65 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 0.8 goals per game
Risks
- Table: Fortuna Sittard is in 6th place in the league with 19 points, Telstar is 16th with 9 points
- Form: Fortuna Sittard is unbeaten in their last 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws, Telstar with 1 win
All probabilities
Result
Fortuna Sittard30%
Draw27%
Telstar44%
Double chance
Fortuna Sittard or draw56%
Telstar or draw70%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.34 : 1.65, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Telstar: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Telstar: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Ronald Koeman Jr.: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Fortuna Sittard: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Fortuna Sittard 5-4-1 · Telstar 4-3-3
Fortuna Sittard
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 I. Ferreira Mendonca Pinto
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 4 I. Márquez Álvarez
- 28 J. Hubner
- 8 J. Dahlhaus
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 22 S. ’t Zand
- 7 K. Peterson
- 9 A. Descotte
Telstar
- 1 R. Koeman Jr.
- 18 G. Caschili
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 17 N. Rossen
- 6 I. Ahmed
- 42 A. Martha
- 10 T. Owusu
- 27 P. Brouwer
- 11 N. Þórisson
Substitutes
- 1 L. Koopmans
- 38 Moussa Gbemou
- 5 Y. Oukili
- 14 J. Simons
- 2 S. Wylin
- 15 N. de Groot
- 33 K. Reitmaier
- 39 G.Büyükhan
- 35 K. Burgsteden
- 8 E. Demircan
- 2 J. Hardeveld
- 20 D. Reiziger
- 28 R. Oudsten
- 15 N. Nwankwo
- 9 J. Seedorf
- 13 F. Mulder
- 5 P. Aning
- 14 H. Kuster
- 21 F. Turay
- 23 N. Shenkman
- 19 F. Rust
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