Match report →
Excelsior – Go Ahead Eagles0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Excelsior
1.49
Total xG
2.98
Go Ahead Eagles
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Excelsior | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.49 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Simon Janssen on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| David Garden on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Victor Edvardsen on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Dean James on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Evert Linthorst on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 81% available) |
Key factors
- Goals: Go Ahead Eagles average 2.09 goals per match in the league this season, Excelsior concede 2.55 per match
- Defense: Excelsior concede 3.8 goals per match at home in the league this season, Go Ahead Eagles 3.17 per match away
- Table: Both teams have 3 wins from 11 matches in the league this season
Risks
- Tactics: Go Ahead Eagles average 5.2 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Excelsior 1.4 per match
- Home/Away: Excelsior average 1 goal per match at home in the league this season, compared to 1.83 per match away
All probabilities
Result
Excelsior36%
Draw27%
Go Ahead Eagles36%
Double chance
Excelsior or draw64%
Go Ahead Eagles or draw64%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.49 : 1.49, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Excelsior: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Go Ahead Eagles: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Go Ahead Eagles: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 21)
- Go Ahead Eagles with Søren Tengstedt starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (20/6 games, last 30)
- Excelsior: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Excelsior 4-2-3-1 · Go Ahead Eagles 4-2-3-1
Excelsior
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 3 R. Meissen
- 4 C. Widell
- 14 J. Plug
- 12 K. Bos
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 7 A. Sliti
- 10 N. Naujoks
- 30 ?. Þorsteinsson
- 9 M. Dominguez
Go Ahead Eagles
- 24 J. Cillessen
- 2 A. Sampsted
- 26 J. Dirksen
- 4 J. Kramer
- 27 T. Galvez
- 21 M. Meulensteen
- 34 Yassir Salah Rahmouni
- 10 S. Tengstedt
- 17 M. Suray
- 23 T. Baeten
- 9 S. Sigurdarson
Substitutes
- 18 V. Sulzbacher
- 24 G. Cairo
- 15 S. Jansson
- 2 E. da Silva Moreira
- 11 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 21 I. Silva Timas
- 16 C. Aussumone Biai
- 6 D. van Vianen
- 19 D. Garden
- 23 Y. Muse Finey
- 22 O. Turay
- 34 Q. Kraaivanger
- 1 C. Haug
- 5 D. James
- 11 O. Sivertsen
- 25 G. van Zwam
- 8 E. Linthorst
- 15 R. Weijenberg
- 18 R. Margaret
- 3 G. Nauber
- 33 N. Verdoni
- 16 V. Edvardsen
- 29 E. Hovden Flataker
- 6 T. Jukić
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