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ADO Den Haag – Sparta Rotterdam3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
ADO Den Haag
1.58
Total xG
3.08
Sparta Rotterdam
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | ADO Den Haag | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.30 | +1.30 |
| Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Yannick Eduardo on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Jens Toornstra on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense: ADO Den Haag concedes 2.18 goals per game in the league this season, Sparta Rotterdam 2.36 per game
- Shots: ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam each took 14 shots per game in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Table: Sparta Rotterdam ranks 11th with 12 points from 11 games, ADO Den Haag is 17th with 6 points from 11 games
- Away: Sparta Rotterdam scored 2.2 goals per game away in 5 away matches in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
ADO Den Haag39%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam35%
Double chance
ADO Den Haag or draw65%
Sparta Rotterdam or draw61%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.58 : 1.49, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sparta Rotterdam: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- ADO Den Haag: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Sparta Rotterdam: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- ADO Den Haag: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- ADO Den Haag: scored only after the break in 6 of 11 games
- ADO Den Haag: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 13)
Lineups
ADO Den Haag 4-2-3-1 · Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1
ADO Den Haag
- 1 K. Nikièma
- 10 I. de Ruijter
- 3 P. Mulder
- 4 M. Waem
- 15 M. Hokke
- 25 J. Kilo
- 14 M. Jimenez
- 7 D. van Mieghem
- 11 E. Rottier
- 17 J. Hawkins
- 27 I. Thomas
Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 M. Brouwer
- 2 L. Martes
- 3 M. Young
- 4 B. Martins Indi
- 5 B. Kuipers
- 8 C. Hatenboer
- 6 T. Quintero León
- 7 M. van Bergen
- 10 S. Mito
- 11 I. Babadi
- 9 M. Zonneveld
Substitutes
- 33 M. Šín
- 8 J. Žambůrek
- 5 J. Jensen-Abbew
- 18 S. Sylla
- 77 D. Bárány
- 16 F. de Bruin
- 22 L. Wilhelm
- 9 J. Bal
- 32 D. van Loenen
- 21 C. Peupion
- 23 N. Thiede
- 12 S. Eekhout
- 19 A. Kostić
- 21 J. Toornstra
- 20 F. Bednarek
- 15 G. Vianello
- 30 P. Kuiper
- 22 J. Ideho
- 18 R. van Cruijsen
- 16 A. Roaldsöy
- 17 C. Terho
- 12 B. Reith
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