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SC Heerenveen – Feyenoord5 : 3
Why the model thinks so
SC Heerenveen
1.46
Total xG
3.40
Feyenoord
1.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Heerenveen | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.28 | +1.28 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.46 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Feyenoord averages 3.5 goals per away game in the league this season
- Table: Feyenoord ranks 1st in the league with 25 points from 11 games, SC Heerenveen is 7th with 18 points
- xG: Feyenoord recorded 1.94 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
Risks
- Form: SC Heerenveen won 4 of their last 5 games, while Feyenoord won 1 over the same period
- Home: SC Heerenveen conceded 0.83 goals per game at home in the league this season across 6 games
All probabilities
Result
SC Heerenveen28%
Draw24%
Feyenoord48%
Double chance
SC Heerenveen or draw52%
Feyenoord or draw72%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.46 : 1.95, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
5:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Feyenoord with Gjivai Zechiël starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (15/15 games, last 30)
- SC Heerenveen with Maxence Rivera starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (19/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1 · Feyenoord 4-3-3
SC Heerenveen
- 1 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 16 M. Linday
- 8 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 14 L. Smans
- 7 M. Rivera
- 9 D. Vente
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
Substitutes
- 29 L. Machine
- 23 D. Bladi
- 21 M. Farji
- 6 D. Proper
- 28 H. Petrov
- 44 A. Noppert
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 15 M. Egbring
- 11 L. Oyen
- 2 M. Hilgers
- 30 Timo Christian Schreuder
- 17 R. Uldriķis
- 17 R. Nelson
- 39 L. Bossin
- 27 G. Diarra
- 49 S. van Persie
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
- 50 T. Deligiannidis
- 65 D. Slory
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