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FC Utrecht – NEC Nijmegen2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
FC Utrecht
1.63
Total xG
3.38
NEC Nijmegen
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.9 goals/match) | +1.38 | +1.38 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.82 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Arthur Zagré on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| P. Schuurs not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Clement Bischoff on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/away: FC Utrecht concede 3 goals per game at home in the league this season, NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 per game away
- Tactics: NEC Nijmegen recorded 6.2 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, FC Utrecht 4.6 per game
Risks
- Rest days: NEC Nijmegen with 3 days since their last match
- Head-to-head: FC Utrecht won 3 of the 4 meetings between the teams since 2024
All probabilities
Result
FC Utrecht35%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen40%
Double chance
FC Utrecht or draw60%
NEC Nijmegen or draw65%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.63 : 1.75, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- NEC Nijmegen: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Utrecht: 76% of all goals in the second half (13 of 17, last 11 games)
Lineups
FC Utrecht 4-3-3 · NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
FC Utrecht
- 1 V. Barkas
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 3 M. Didden
- 5 N. Panayiotou
- 32 P. Kloosterboer
- 80 M. Sivertsen Broholm
- 8 J. van Overeem
- 20 D. de Wit
- 11 Ángel Galiot
- 9 A. Stepanov
- 10 Y. Cathline
NEC Nijmegen
- 1 G. Crettaz
- 73 Gabriel Brás
- 22 A. Kaplan
- 24 D. Fonville
- 34 K. Kers
- 6 D. Nejašmić
- 20 N. Lebreton
- 5 M. Bakker
- 9 T. Chery
- 10 D. Tadić
- 30 B. Linssen
Substitutes
- 18 J. Medić
- 22 S. Padt
- 2 S. Horemans
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 15 A. Blake
- 34 D. van den Berg
- 17 S. van Duijn
- 6 G. Offerhaus
- 21 N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 92 A. Zagre
- 38 O. Agougil
- 39 N. Amrabat
- 8 I. Hansen-Aaröen
- 66 A. Raouf Mohammed Kabar
- 11 W. Willumsson
- 99 C. Bischoff
- 12 N. Polster
- 3 P. Sandler
- 42 Y. Moslih
- 35 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 14 K. Sierhuis
- 77 A. Thomas
- 21 T. Storm
- 19 A. Tahaui
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