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FC Twente – Ajax2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Twente
2.39
Total xG
3.85
Ajax
1.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Twente | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.28 | +1.28 |
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | −0.73 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.54 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.50 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.50 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | +0.42 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| Julian Brandt not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Abdellah Ouazane on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactics: FC Twente averaged 9.2 shots on target per match with 68% possession in their last 5 matches
- Defence: FC Twente allowed 0.80 xG per match and conceded 0.91 goals per match in 11 league matches this season
Risks
- Away: Ajax scored 3.6 goals per match in 5 away matches in the league this season
- Form: Ajax won all 5 of their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
FC Twente57%
Draw21%
Ajax22%
Double chance
FC Twente or draw78%
Ajax or draw43%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.554%
Under 3.546%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.39 : 1.46, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:2
5%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ajax: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- FC Twente: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Ajax: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sondre Ørjasæter: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Ajax with Oscar Gloukh starting: 3 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (17/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
FC Twente 4-2-3-1 · Ajax 4-2-3-1
FC Twente
- 16 J. Drommel
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 4 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 D. Weidmann
- 11 D. Rots
- 10 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 9 W. Weghorst
Ajax
- 1 M. ter Stegen
- 2 L. Rosa
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 36 D. Janse
- 5 O. Wijndal
- 28 Y. Bissouma
- 15 Y. Baas
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 24 J. Mokio
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 99 T. Arokodare
Substitutes
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 14 K. Hlynsson
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 18 J. Bawuah
- 31 Y. Gerritsen
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 2 M. Rosiak
- 17 D. Blind
- 12 C. Oliveira Silva
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 22 J. Heerkens
- 20 O. Edvardsen
- 43 R. Bounida
- 21 J. Torrents Salvat
- 68 A. Ouazane
- 26 M. Paes
- 67 M. Abdalla
- 38 M. Santos Almeida
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