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SC Cambuur – PSV2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
SC Cambuur
1.25
Total xG
3.58
PSV
2.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SC Cambuur | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.8 goals/match) | +1.32 | +1.32 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Ivan Perišić on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.9 vs 2.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: PSV scores 2.8 goals per game away in the league, while Cambuur concedes 2.5 per game at home
- Table: PSV is 3rd with 23 points from 11 games, while Cambuur is 10th with 15 points
- Tactics: PSV averaged 19.8 total shots and 58.2% possession per game over recent matches
Risks
- Form: Cambuur is undefeated in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
- Away: PSV concedes 1.6 goals per game away from home in the league
All probabilities
Result
SC Cambuur18%
Draw21%
PSV61%
Double chance
SC Cambuur or draw39%
PSV or draw82%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.24 : 2.34, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:3
7%
0:3
6%
2:2
6%
2:1
5%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SC Cambuur: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 11 games)
- Rafik El Arguioui: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
Lineups
SC Cambuur 4-3-3 · PSV 4-2-3-1
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 2 D. Bouah
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 33 M. Maertens
- 8 N. Souren
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 30 J. Ceka
- 13 N. Binder
- 11 I. Hamache
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 18 F. Kostić
- 24 K. Sano
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 20 G. Til
Substitutes
- 22 L. Plogmann
- 23 L. Jetten
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 9 S. Vink
- 15 F. Kvam
- 16 R. Mulders
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 24 M. Kalisvaart
- 29 I. Henstra
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
- 45 B. Vogelzang
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 25 K. Sildillia
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 5 I. Perišić
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 27 D. Man
- 9 R. Pepi
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 35 A. Santos
- 29 S. Lammers
- 42 S. Cornecion
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